2026 MLB Trade Deadline Grades: What the Deals Actually Changed
BBMI re-simulated the season with and without the deadline trades. The Dodgers gained 8.8 percentage points of World Series probability. Cleveland gained 15.1 points of playoff probability.
Most trade-deadline grades mix several different questions together.
Did a contender acquire a recognizable player? Did a seller receive enough prospects? Will those prospects develop? Did the front office preserve sufficient payroll flexibility?
This analysis asks one narrower question:
What did the 2026 trade deadline do to each team’s chances in 2026?
BBMI ran two paired simulations. The first used every club’s pre-deadline roster. The second used the same underlying conditions with only the completed trades applied. Standings, injuries, schedules, park factors and random seeds were otherwise held constant.
The results come from 9,000 paired season-and-postseason simulations.
For teams that entered the deadline with at least a 90% chance of reaching the postseason, the grade is driven primarily by the change in World Series win probability. At that point, another small increase in playoff certainty is less meaningful than becoming better positioned to win in October.
For everyone else, the grade is driven primarily by the change in playoff probability.
These are strictly 2026 grades. Prospect value, years of control and long-term organizational impact are intentionally excluded. Those questions belong in a separate article.
Exhibit 1 · Change in primary result
percentage points, with trades minus withoutPLF = change in playoff probability · WS = change in World Series win probability, used for teams above the 90% pre-deadline playoff threshold. Bars share one scale; each half spans 20 points.
The 2026 deadline grade book
| Team | Primary result | Change | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | Playoffs: 25.9% → 41.0% | +15.09 pp | A |
| San Diego Padres | Playoffs: 14.2% → 23.9% | +9.72 pp | A |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | WS win: 23.5% → 32.3% | +8.81 pp | A+ |
| Houston Astros | Playoffs: 67.2% → 73.5% | +6.28 pp | A |
| Atlanta Braves | WS win: 9.0% → 12.7% | +3.71 pp | A |
| Seattle Mariners | Playoffs: 44.2% → 47.4% | +3.20 pp | B+ |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Playoffs: 79.2% → 81.7% | +2.48 pp | B+ |
| Boston Red Sox | WS win: 4.8% → 6.8% | +2.01 pp | A− |
| Chicago White Sox | Playoffs: 56.8% → 58.8% | +1.91 pp | B |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Playoffs: 28.7% → 29.9% | +1.18 pp | B− |
| Chicago Cubs | WS win: 3.2% → 4.0% | +0.87 pp | B+ |
| Colorado Rockies | Playoffs: 0.0% → 0.0% | 0.00 pp | C |
| Los Angeles Angels | Playoffs: 0.0% → 0.0% | 0.00 pp | C |
| Oakland Athletics | Playoffs: 0.0% → 0.0% | 0.00 pp | C |
| Kansas City Royals | Playoffs: 0.01% → 0.00% | −0.01 pp | C |
| San Francisco Giants | Playoffs: 0.1% → 0.0% | −0.03 pp | C− |
| New York Mets | Playoffs: 0.1% → 0.0% | −0.07 pp | C− |
| Washington Nationals | Playoffs: 0.7% → 0.4% | −0.27 pp | C− |
| Cincinnati Reds | Playoffs: 0.8% → 0.5% | −0.32 pp | C− |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Playoffs: 2.2% → 1.8% | −0.38 pp | C− |
| Tampa Bay Rays | WS win: 8.8% → 7.7% | −1.04 pp | D+ |
| Minnesota Twins | Playoffs: 12.2% → 10.8% | −1.49 pp | D |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Playoffs: 9.8% → 8.2% | −1.60 pp | D |
| Texas Rangers | Playoffs: 41.9% → 39.2% | −2.66 pp | D |
| Baltimore Orioles | Playoffs: 6.4% → 3.4% | −2.97 pp | D− |
| New York Yankees | WS win: 12.5% → 8.3% | −4.17 pp | D− |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Playoffs: 54.7% → 50.4% | −4.32 pp | D− |
| Milwaukee Brewers | WS win: 15.2% → 8.7% | −6.51 pp | F |
| Miami Marlins | Playoffs: 26.9% → 19.2% | −7.71 pp | F |
| Detroit Tigers | Playoffs: 45.0% → 25.0% | −19.98 pp | F |
The neutral grades for several eliminated teams do not evaluate the prospects they acquired. They only reflect that those trades had essentially no measurable effect on an already-negligible 2026 postseason probability.
Exhibit 2 · Contenders: World Series win probability
before → after, teams above the 90% playoff thresholdExhibit 3 · The bubble: playoff probability
before → afterHollow marker = pre-deadline roster. Filled marker = with trades applied. The seven clubs graded on World Series probability appear in Exhibit 2; clubs below 3% playoff probability are omitted.
The biggest winners
Los Angeles Dodgers: A+
World Series win probability: 23.5% → 32.3%
Tarik Skubal increased the Dodgers’ championship probability by 8.81 percentage points, easily the largest gain in baseball.
Los Angeles’ chance of winning the National League also rose from 38.2% to 44.4%, a gain of 6.20 points.
The scale of the World Series movement is the defining result of the analysis. The next four championship gainers—Atlanta, Boston, the Cubs and Seattle—combined for a gain of 7.21 points. The Dodgers gained 8.81 by themselves.
Los Angeles was already certain to reach the postseason. The deadline made it considerably more likely to finish the job.
Cleveland Guardians: A
Playoff probability: 25.9% → 41.0%
Cleveland produced the largest playoff-probability gain in the league: +15.09 percentage points.
Foster Griffin entered the rotation, Jo Adell entered the everyday lineup and Craig Yoho joined the bullpen pool. The Guardians went from roughly a one-in-four playoff chance to better than two-in-five.
Their American League championship probability also increased from 1.8% to 2.9%, although their rounded World Series probability remained at 0.5%.
For Cleveland, the central deadline question was not whether the trades created an ideal postseason rotation. It was whether the club would reach the postseason. The model’s answer moved substantially toward yes.
San Diego Padres: A
Playoff probability: 14.2% → 23.9%
Casey Mize and Robbie Ray increased San Diego’s playoff probability by 9.72 points.
That represents a relative increase of nearly 70% from the Padres’ pre-deadline position. Their National League championship probability also rose from 0.27% to 0.79%.
The absolute postseason odds remain below 25%, but the trades materially changed San Diego’s season. Few bubble teams improved their position as much.
Houston Astros: A
Playoff probability: 67.2% → 73.5%
Daulton Varsho increased Houston’s playoff probability by 6.28 points.
The Astros’ American League championship probability also improved from 11.0% to 13.3%, a gain of 2.29 points, while their World Series probability rose from 4.2% to 4.7%.
Houston strengthened both its route into October and its position once there.
Atlanta Braves: A
World Series win probability: 9.0% → 12.7%
Atlanta was already a near-certain playoff team, so the relevant result is its championship movement.
Tyler Mahle and Brent Suter increased the Braves’ National League championship probability from 16.7% to 19.8% and their World Series probability by 3.71 points.
That was the second-largest title-probability gain in baseball.
Boston Red Sox: A−
World Series win probability: 4.8% → 6.8%
Boston entered the deadline with a 91.9% playoff probability, placing it on the contender side of the grading rule.
Adley Rutschman, Curtis Mead and Erik Miller increased that playoff probability to 93.8%, but the larger result was in the postseason bracket. Boston’s American League championship probability rose from 12.0% to 15.3%, and its World Series probability increased 2.01 points.
No American League team gained more championship probability.
The meaningful gains on the playoff bubble
Seattle Mariners: B+
Playoff probability: 44.2% → 47.4%
Taylor Ward and Seranthony Domínguez increased Seattle’s playoff probability by 3.20 points.
Its American League championship probability rose even more sharply, from 9.7% to 12.4%, while its World Series probability increased from 5.0% to 5.6%.
Seattle remained just below a coin flip to qualify, but it improved both its path into October and its chances after arrival.
Philadelphia Phillies: B+
Playoff probability: 79.2% → 81.7%
The Phillies’ case demonstrates why the grading rule needs to be stated in advance.
Luis Arraez, Brooks Raley and Caleb Kilian increased Philadelphia’s playoff probability by 2.48 points. At the same time, its National League championship probability fell 0.40 points and its World Series probability fell 0.37.
Because Philadelphia began below the 90% contender cutoff, the grade is driven by the improved likelihood of reaching the postseason. The strengthened Dodgers, Braves, Cubs and Padres explain why its October share still declined.
Chicago White Sox: B
Playoff probability: 56.8% → 58.8%
Luis Castillo, Joey Bart and Huascar Brazobán increased Chicago’s playoff probability by 1.91 points.
The White Sox became more likely to qualify, even though their American League championship probability fell from 3.6% to 2.9%.
The deadline helped Chicago reach the tournament. It did not make the club more dangerous relative to the rest of the tournament.
Pittsburgh Pirates: B−
Playoff probability: 28.7% → 29.9%
Pittsburgh added Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates, Lake Bachar and Luke Weaver to the bullpen.
The result was a 1.18-point playoff increase. Its National League championship probability nevertheless declined from 1.7% to 1.2%.
The bullpen work helped Pittsburgh’s qualification chances modestly. It did not keep pace with the larger improvements made by the league’s leading contenders.
Teams that improved one outcome and lost another
Chicago Cubs: B+
World Series win probability: 3.2% → 4.0%
Chicago’s playoff probability actually declined slightly, from 92.7% to 92.4%.
Because the Cubs were already above the 90% contender threshold, the more important outcome is their championship probability. Kevin Gausman and Ryan Zeferjahn increased Chicago’s National League championship probability by 0.89 points and its World Series probability by 0.87.
The Cubs became marginally less certain to qualify but better positioned to win if they did.
Tampa Bay Rays: D+
World Series win probability: 8.8% → 7.7%
Tampa Bay remained nearly certain to reach the postseason, moving from 99.8% to 99.8% after rounding.
Freddy Peralta, Liam Hicks and Tyler Wells increased the Rays’ American League championship probability slightly, from 21.2% to 21.5%. Their World Series probability, however, declined 1.04 points.
The interpretation is straightforward: Tampa Bay’s position within the American League held up, but the strengthened National League reduced its probability of winning the final round.
The largest deadline losses
Detroit Tigers: F
Playoff probability: 45.0% → 25.0%
Detroit suffered the largest playoff-probability decline in baseball: −19.98 percentage points.
Its American League championship probability fell from 7.9% to 2.1%, while its World Series probability declined from 3.4% to 0.5%.
Trading Skubal to Los Angeles and Mize to San Diego sharply reduced Detroit’s 2026 outlook. Whatever the prospect return eventually becomes, the immediate effect was to move the Tigers from nearly a coin flip to reach October to a one-in-four chance.
Miami Marlins: F
Playoff probability: 26.9% → 19.2%
Miami made a lot of moves, mostly moving players, and reduced its playoff probability by 7.71 points, the second-largest decline among teams below the 90% contender threshold.
Its National League championship probability fell from 0.66% to 0.31%, and its World Series probability fell from 0.3% to 0.1%.
The Marlins retained a real postseason path before the deadline. That path became materially narrower afterward.
Arizona Diamondbacks: D−
Playoff probability: 54.7% → 50.4%
Arizona moved from a modest playoff favorite to nearly a coin flip, losing 4.32 percentage points.
Its National League championship probability fell from 1.78% to 1.32%, while its World Series probability declined from 0.7% to 0.4%.
The acquisition of Lars Nootbaar did not offset the overall deadline movement around the Diamondbacks.
Texas Rangers: D
Playoff probability: 41.9% → 39.2%
Texas’ deadline moves acquiring C Logan O’Hoppe, RHP Chase Silseth, and LHP Adam Macko were minor in comparison to other teams and reduced its playoff probability by 2.66 points.
Its American League championship probability slipped from 5.5% to 5.3%, and its World Series probability fell from 2.3% to 1.8%.
For a team sitting directly on the postseason bubble, losing probability rather than adding it is a poor result.
Baltimore Orioles: D−
Playoff probability: 6.4% → 3.4%
Baltimore’s playoff probability was nearly cut in half, declining 2.97 points.
The absolute probability was already low, but the change still materially weakened the Orioles’ remaining 2026 opportunity.
Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins: D
Toronto declined from 9.8% to 8.2%, a loss of 1.60 points.
Minnesota declined from 12.2% to 10.8%, a loss of 1.49 points.
Neither movement ended a strong postseason position, but both teams left the deadline less likely to reach October.
The contenders that lost championship ground
Milwaukee Brewers: F
World Series win probability: 15.2% → 8.7%
Milwaukee’s playoff probability remained effectively unchanged at 99.9%.
That is precisely why playoff probability is not the correct grading measure for the Brewers. Reaching October was never the issue.
Their probability of winning the National League fell from 25.6% to 16.6%, a decline of 8.96 points. Their World Series probability fell 6.51 points, the largest championship loss in baseball.
Milwaukee added Dustin May and Antonio Senzatela. May will help replace the Brandon Woodruff sized hole in the playoff rotation. Senzatela will add some depth to the bullpen that’s been hit hard by injuries.
The problem was relative movement. Los Angeles added Skubal, Atlanta improved, and the Cubs and Padres also gained National League pennant probability.
Milwaukee’s deadline did not make the club meaningfully less likely to reach October. It made the route through October considerably harder.
New York Yankees: D−
World Series win probability: 12.5% → 8.3%
The Yankees’ playoff probability increased slightly, from 98.8% to 99.0%.
Their American League championship probability nevertheless fell from 25.6% to 23.0%, and their World Series probability declined 4.17 points.
The Yankees added Heliot Ramos and Luis García Jr. and remained virtually certain to qualify. Boston, Seattle and Houston gained more meaningful postseason ground around them.
New York improved its probability of reaching October by 0.22 points and lost more than four points of championship probability.
The already-eliminated sellers
The Rockies, Angels and Athletics all remained at a rounded 0.0% playoff probability before and after the deadline.
Kansas City changed by −0.01 points. San Francisco changed by −0.03. The Mets changed by −0.07.
Those clubs receive grades near C because this exercise excludes future value and measures only 2026 postseason probability. Their current-season outlook was already functionally over, leaving little probability available to gain or lose.
That is a limitation of a 2026-only grade, not an argument that their long-term decisions were good or bad.
Final assessment
The two largest positive movements came from different parts of the competitive landscape.
The Dodgers increased their World Series probability by 8.81 points, the largest championship gain.
Cleveland increased its playoff probability by 15.09 points, the largest qualification gain.
San Diego and Houston also materially improved their chances of reaching October. Atlanta and Boston strengthened already-likely postseason teams once the simulated bracket began.
Detroit experienced the largest playoff loss. Milwaukee experienced the largest championship loss.
The central lesson remains:
A deadline must be evaluated relative to the objective a team still needs to accomplish.
For Cleveland, San Diego and Houston, that objective was reaching October.
For Los Angeles, Atlanta, Boston, Milwaukee and New York, the meaningful question was what happened after October began.
Disclosure: analytical and educational content about model performance. Not betting advice. Rankings, forecasts, and probabilities are model outputs, not financial or betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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