BBMI MLB Power Rankings, August 19: Milwaukee Holds No. 1, and the Central Comes Down to Seven Games
All 30 teams ranked by schedule-adjusted BBMI Score, with twelve days of movement since the August 7 board and the changes worth explaining. The Brewers and the Cubs play each other seven more times. Houston and Texas, a game apart, never play each other again.
The Milwaukee Brewers are still No. 1, and they are still 78–48, and the interesting part of their season starts now.
On the August 7 board the Brewers led the Dodgers by a single thousandth. Twelve days later they lead by four, .827 to .823, and they have gone 9–6 over their last 15 to do it while the Cubs went 10–5 and cut nothing off the lead.
Chicago is five back with 34 to play. Seven of those are in Milwaukee’s dugout.
Milwaukee and Chicago play each other seven more times
That is the division race in one line. Milwaukee does not have to beat the league to hold this; it has to beat one club, seven times, in September, and those seven are the biggest single block left on either schedule.
The rest of it favors the Brewers. Sixty-five percent of what Chicago has left is against clubs with winning records, against forty-four percent for Milwaukee. Both get six with Cincinnati. The Cubs then get six with Miami and three each with Atlanta, Boston, Seattle, Arizona and Pittsburgh; the Brewers get three each with Atlanta, Philadelphia, Texas, Baltimore, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and the Mets, and two with Seattle.
The NL Central, what is left
share of remaining games against winning recordsHouston and Texas are one game apart in the American League West. They do not play each other again.
Both have 36 games left and none of them are head to head. The Astros settle it against the Athletics, whom they play seven more times, and the White Sox, whom they play four. The Rangers settle it against Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston and Minnesota. Two clubs at .500 and .492 will decide a division without ever facing each other again.
And then there is the schedule Los Angeles drew. The Dodgers have 35 games left, twenty-three of them against clubs at or below .500, and thirteen of those against Cincinnati and San Francisco alone. Of the five contenders whose remaining slates we checked, theirs is the softest: an opponent winning percentage of .483, against .530 for the Cubs.
They are eight and a half up on San Diego and play the Padres three more times. Whatever the standings say about the Brewers and the Dodgers today, one of them has a division to win and the other has a schedule to survive.
Two division races, two shapes
games remaining between the contendersThe deadline is still working through the board
The August 3 deadline moved a lot of players, and the Talent column is the part of this page that notices first. It rates the roster a club has right now rather than the one it had in June, so a starter changing hands shows up there before it shows up in the standings.
San Francisco is the clearest case. The Giants now rate .393, last in baseball, and it is the largest fall in the column since our last installment.
It does not run in one direction, though. Atlanta is the club whose rating fell second furthest, and the Braves still lead the National League East by five. A roster that looks better on paper and a division lead built in June are different things, and this column scores both.
At the other end, Los Angeles came out of it with the best roster in baseball by a distance: .635, with nobody else above .584.
None of that has moved the top of the rankings, because banked wins are the largest term in BBMI Score and it is late enough that the wins are mostly banked. It moves October, which is the argument this column left open on August 7: the rankings still have Milwaukee first, and the Playoff Pulse still has Los Angeles first, now at 37.0% against Milwaukee’s 18.2%.
That comes later.
The Talent column, top and bottom
record-neutral roster ratingThe rankings
| Rank | Team | Mv | BBMI | Talent | Record | Last 15 | Margin | Playoff | Div | Pennant | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | · | .827 | .558 | 78–48 | 9–6 | +1.25 | 99% | 95% | 18.2% | |
| 2 | Los Angeles Dodgers | · | .823 | .635 | 76–51 | 7–8 | +1.13 | 99% | 99% | 37.0% | |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | ▲1 | .803 | .584 | 75–50 | 10–5 | +0.38 | 99% | 83% | 32.4% | |
| 4 | New York Yankees | ▲2 | .782 | .565 | 70–55 | 8–7 | +0.69 | 99% | 15% | 19.0% | |
| 5 | Atlanta Braves | ▼2 | .772 | .544 | 74–53 | 7–8 | +0.87 | 99% | 88% | 13.5% | |
| 6 | Chicago Cubs | ▲1 | .772 | .519 | 74–54 | 10–5 | +0.78 | 99% | 6% | 14.7% | |
| 7 | Boston Red Sox | ▼2 | .759 | .549 | 68–58 | 8–7 | +0.76 | 98% | 2% | 10.0% | |
| 8 | San Diego Padres | ▲6 | .738 | .515 | 68–60 | 10–5 | +0.02 | 66% | 1% | 5.0% | |
| 9 | Chicago White Sox | ▲2 | .728 | .484 | 66–60 | 7–8 | +0.37 | 89% | 78% | 10.4% | |
| 10 | Philadelphia Phillies | ▼2 | .728 | .550 | 69–58 | 10–5 | +0.10 | 78% | 12% | 8.9% | |
| 11 | Arizona Diamondbacks | ▼1 | .712 | .502 | 66–61 | 7–8 | +0.02 | 34% | 1% | 1.9% | |
| 12 | Houston Astros | ▼3 | .703 | .557 | 63–63 | 7–8 | −0.25 | 61% | 55% | 12.4% | |
| 13 | Texas Rangers | ▼1 | .696 | .521 | 62–64 | 7–8 | −0.33 | 41% | 34% | 5.5% | |
| 14 | Toronto Blue Jays | ▲7 | .693 | .491 | 62–65 | 10–5 | −0.41 | 22% | 1% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | · | .691 | .542 | 63–66 | 6–9 | +0.24 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | Detroit Tigers | ▼3 | .689 | .537 | 61–66 | 7–8 | +0.65 | 15% | 4% | 2.9% | |
| 17 | St. Louis Cardinals | ▲5 | .689 | .452 | 65–62 | 10–5 | +0.08 | 16% | 1% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | Miami Marlins | ▼2 | .684 | .480 | 64–63 | 7–8 | +0.12 | 6% | 1% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | Minnesota Twins | ▲4 | .684 | .446 | 63–65 | 7–8 | −0.32 | 26% | 9% | 1.5% | |
| 20 | Baltimore Orioles | ▼1 | .682 | .475 | 61–65 | 7–8 | −0.23 | 10% | 1% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | Cleveland Guardians | ▼3 | .681 | .488 | 61–65 | 5–10 | −0.20 | 27% | 9% | 2.0% | |
| 22 | Seattle Mariners | ▼5 | .679 | .558 | 59–67 | 6–9 | −0.36 | 13% | 11% | 2.2% | |
| 23 | Washington Nationals | ▼3 | .649 | .474 | 60–67 | 5–10 | +0.10 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | Cincinnati Reds | · | .639 | .442 | 60–66 | 7–8 | −0.70 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | New York Mets | ▲1 | .618 | .403 | 58–70 | 11–4 | −0.33 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals | ▲1 | .591 | .467 | 53–74 | 7–8 | −0.83 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | San Francisco Giants | ▼2 | .571 | .393 | 51–74 | 4–11 | −0.59 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | Los Angeles Angels | ▲2 | .570 | .469 | 50–76 | 8–7 | −0.67 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | Athletics | ▼1 | .556 | .446 | 49–77 | 4–11 | −1.42 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | Colorado Rockies | ▼1 | .547 | .404 | 50–76 | 6–9 | −0.95 | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | |
Rank, movement, BBMI, Talent, record, Last 15 and Margin are from the August 19 Power Rankings board. Playoff, Div and Pennant are from the Playoff Pulse, which is labeled August 18 but is on the same snapshot, both pages agree on 531 games remaining. Mv is movement against the August 7 installment, the last one we published. A Pennant percentage is the share of simulations in which a team reaches the World Series, not a per-series win probability. Talent bars run from .385 to .645 on a common scale.
Exhibit 1 · Talent against results
record-neutral Talent vs. winning percentageDiagonal is the line along which record and Talent agree. Points are colored when they sit more than 20% of the plot height off that line: Seattle, Kansas City, the Angels and the Athletics above it; Milwaukee, Atlanta, the Cubs, the White Sox, St. Louis and Minnesota below. Seattle sits farthest above the line in baseball. Milwaukee sits farthest below it, with the Cubs next.
The movers
Since the August 7 board, three clubs have moved five spots or more up and one has fallen that far, and the asymmetry says something about how this board is built.
Toronto, San Diego and St. Louis all went 10–5, and all three were rewarded for it, the Blue Jays seven spots, the Padres six, the Cardinals five. Seattle went 6–9 and slid five. Banked wins are the largest term in BBMI Score, so twelve days of results moves teams.
What those twelve days did not do is change what the model thinks of the rosters. Pittsburgh still has the tenth-best Talent rating in baseball. St. Louis still has the 24th.
Those two facts sit two rows apart on the board and fourteen rows apart in the Talent column.
Team by team
1. Milwaukee Brewers · .827
78–48 · Talent .558 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 18.2% · no change
Milwaukee holds No. 1 for a second straight installment, and the cushion has quadrupled.
The Brewers have the best record in baseball at 78–48, a five-game lead in the National League Central, and the Playoff Pulse’s projected No. 1 seed in the National League at a 95% division probability.
The case is pitching. Their 3.80 FIP is the best in the sport and the +1.25 scoring margin is the best in baseball. The hitting is a step behind: a .733 OPS ranks seventh.
The Talent rating is the one number that goes against them. Milwaukee’s healthy-roster figure is .558, fourth in baseball and 77 points behind Los Angeles. The Brewers have earned this ranking. They do not have the best roster in it.
The Playoff Pulse says the same thing. Milwaukee’s pennant probability is 18.2%, down from 24.3% on the last board: second in the National League, fourth in the sport, and about half the Dodgers’ number.
Bottom line: the best season in baseball, ranked first, and still not the favorite for October.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers · .823
76–51 · Talent .635 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 37.0% · no change
Los Angeles is second on the board with the best roster in baseball.
The Dodgers are 7–8 over their last 15 and their BBMI Score is down eight thousandths since August 7. The roster still rates .635, best in baseball, and nobody else is above .584.
The profile underneath it is what a rating like that should look like. The .765 OPS is the highest on the board, the scoring margin is +1.13, and the Playoff Pulse gives the Dodgers a 99% division probability and the best pennant odds in baseball at 37.0%, nearly five points clear of the field.
What Milwaukee has is the wins. The Brewers are two ahead in the win column and three behind in the loss column, and they have played the harder schedule of the two. That is the entire gap between first and second.
Bottom line: the best roster in baseball, the best odds in October, and second in the rankings until they win more games.
3. Tampa Bay Rays · .803
75–50 · Talent .584 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 32.4% · ▲1
Tampa Bay leads the American League East by five and has the best October odds in the league.
The Rays are 75–50, 10–5 over their last 15, and hold an 83% AL East probability with a five-game lead.
The Talent rating is .584, second in baseball and nineteen clear of third, seventh on the August 7 board. The pennant odds followed: 32.4%, up from 23.9%, the largest move of any club in the sport and the best in the American League.
Tampa Bay scores. The .343 wOBA is second in baseball. The pitching is middling at a 4.21 FIP, fifteenth, and the +0.38 scoring margin is small for a club five games clear.
Bottom line: the best October odds in the American League, on a run differential that says this has been closer than the standings look.
4. New York Yankees · .782
70–55 · Talent .565 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 19.0% · ▲2
New York has moved up two spots on the board and six places in the Talent column.
The Yankees are 70–55, five behind Tampa Bay in the East, and rate .565 in the Talent column, third in baseball, ninth on the August 7 board.
The pitching is real. A 3.88 FIP is fourth in the sport, and they have faced the fourth-hardest schedule in baseball at +0.8. The bats have not kept pace: a .309 wOBA ranks twentieth and the .715 OPS seventeenth.
October is all but certain at 99%. The division is not, at 15%. The pennant probability of 19.0% is third in the sport, ahead of the club leading these rankings.
Bottom line: a wild card in the standings and a contender on paper.
5. Atlanta Braves · .772
74–53 · Talent .544 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 13.5% · ▼2
Atlanta leads the National League East by five and slipped two spots anyway.
The Braves are 74–53 with an 88% division probability, and the Talent rating has fallen 51 points to .544 since August 7, second in baseball to ninth, the second-largest drop on the board. Their BBMI Score fell 44 thousandths, which is the largest.
They have faced the softest schedule in the sport at −2.1, which is the largest single correction on the board and most of why a 74-win club sits fifth. The +0.87 scoring margin is third-best in baseball, so the record is real. It is the opposition that is being marked down.
The bracket is unbothered: 99% to reach October, 13.5% to reach the World Series, sixth in the sport.
Bottom line: a division leader whose ranking is being held down by the quality of its opponents rather than the quality of its play.
6. Chicago Cubs · .772
74–54 · Talent .519 · Playoff 99% · Pennant 14.7% · ▲1
Chicago is 10–5 over its last 15 and has closed to five games back in the Central.
The Cubs are 74–54 with a 99% playoff probability, and the fifth-best pennant odds in the sport at 14.7%, better than the Braves, better than the Astros, better than the club four spots above them.
The Talent rating is the drag: .519, thirteenth in baseball and thirteenth on our last board. So is the pitching, at a 4.59 FIP that ranks twenty-seventh. The pennant odds are the part that has moved, 8.5% to 14.7%, the second-largest rise in the sport.
The bats carry it. A .755 OPS is third in baseball and the +0.78 margin is fourth.
Bottom line: a very good offense, a rotation the model rates near the bottom, and October odds that keep climbing anyway.
7. Boston Red Sox · .759
68–58 · Talent .549 · Playoff 98% · Pennant 10.0% · ▼2
Boston is 68–58 and seven and a half back in the East, and rates better than that.
The Talent rating is .549, eighth in baseball and fifth on our last board. The 3.86 FIP is third. They have faced the third-hardest schedule in the sport at +1.0.
The hitting is the problem: a .302 wOBA ranks twenty-seventh, against a .729 OPS that ranks ninth.
The Pulse has them at 98% to play in October and 10.0% to reach the World Series, ninth in the sport, on a 2% division probability.
Bottom line: a wild-card club by every route, with the pitching to be dangerous once it gets there.
8. San Diego Padres · .738
68–60 · Talent .515 · Playoff 66% · Pennant 5.0% · ▲6
San Diego is the second-biggest riser since the August 7 board, up six spots on the largest score gain in the sport.
The Padres went 10–5 to reach 68–60, and the Playoff Pulse now has them at 66% to reach October, on a 1% division probability, because Los Angeles is eight and a half in front.
The roster rating has moved less. Talent sits at .515, up twenty-three points since August 7 but still only fourteenth, and the +0.02 scoring margin is the smallest of any club in the top ten.
There is a split worth watching: a .335 wOBA is fifth in baseball while the .704 OPS is twenty-third, which is what a lineup that gets on base and does not slug looks like.
Bottom line: twelve days of results bought six spots and a wild-card place. The roster rating has not moved nearly as far.
9. Chicago White Sox · .728
66–60 · Talent .484 · Playoff 89% · Pennant 10.4% · ▲2
The White Sox lead the American League Central by four and rank ninth.
Chicago is 66–60 with a 78% division probability and an 89% playoff probability, and the pennant odds have climbed to 10.4%, eighth in the sport.
That roster grades .484, eighteenth in baseball, sixteenth on our last board, and still the weakest Talent rating of any division leader by a distance.
The schedule has been the fifth-hardest in the sport at +0.8, which is doing real work in the ranking, and the +0.37 margin is positive but thin.
Bottom line: a projected first-round bye for the eighteenth-best roster in baseball, which says more about the AL Central than about the White Sox.
10. Philadelphia Phillies · .728
69–58 · Talent .550 · Playoff 78% · Pennant 8.9% · ▼2
Philadelphia went 10–5 and fell two spots since August 7, which takes some doing.
The Phillies are 69–58, five behind Atlanta, and rate .550 in Talent, seventh in baseball and three spots better than the club leading their division.
The rotation is the best part: a 3.84 FIP is second in the sport, behind Milwaukee and nothing else.
The offense is why the ranking sits where it does. A .303 wOBA ranks twenty-sixth and the +0.10 margin is almost nothing for a club eleven games over .500. The second-softest schedule in baseball, at −1.8, accounts for the rest.
Bottom line: a rotation good enough to win a short series, attached to the twenty-sixth-best offense in baseball.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks · .712
66–61 · Talent .502 · Playoff 34% · Pennant 1.9% · ▼1
Arizona is 66–61, ten behind Los Angeles, and holding at eleventh.
The Talent rating is .502, up twenty-five points since August 7 to fifteenth, and the +0.02 scoring margin says the record is roughly what the run column supports.
The Pulse gives the Diamondbacks 34% to reach October and 1.9% to reach the World Series, sixteenth in the sport.
Nothing in the profile stands out in either direction: a 4.44 FIP twenty-second, a .308 wOBA twenty-third, a .714 OPS nineteenth.
Bottom line: the most ordinary team on the board, five games out of the last wild card with about a third of a chance.
12. Houston Astros · .703
63–63 · Talent .557 · Playoff 61% · Pennant 12.4% · ▼3
Houston leads the American League West by a game at 63–63, and is the largest disagreement between the board and the bracket in baseball.
The Astros rank twelfth in BBMI Score and seventh in pennant probability at 12.4%. The reason is the Talent column: .557, sixth in the sport, on a club playing exactly .500 ball.
The record does not support the rating, and the rating is coming to meet it: down eighteen points since August 7, fourth in baseball to sixth. Houston has the only negative scoring margin in the top twelve at −0.25, and a 4.52 FIP that ranks twenty-third.
The division is still 55% theirs, and October is 61%.
Bottom line: the sixth-best roster in baseball has spent five months playing .500. The bracket bets on the roster; the board scores the five months.
13. Texas Rangers · .696
62–64 · Talent .521 · Playoff 41% · Pennant 5.5% · ▼1
Texas is a game behind Houston at 62–64 with a 34% division probability.
The Rangers rate .521 in Talent, twelfth in baseball and twelfth on our last board, and have faced the ninth-hardest schedule at +0.5.
The pitching holds up at a 4.14 FIP, twelfth. The offense does not: a .295 wOBA is twenty-eighth in the sport, third-worst, and the −0.33 margin follows from it.
October sits at 41% and the pennant at 5.5%.
Bottom line: a division race decided by which of two .500 clubs finds a bat, and Texas has the further to go.
14. Toronto Blue Jays · .693
62–65 · Talent .491 · Playoff 22% · Pennant 1.4% · ▲7
Toronto is the biggest climb on the board, up seven spots since the last installment we published.
The Blue Jays went 10–5 to reach 62–65, and did it while the Talent rating went the other way: .491, sixteenth in baseball, fourteenth on our last board. The climb up the board is banked wins, not a reappraisal.
They have faced the second-hardest schedule in the sport at +1.7, which is most of why a club five games under .500 sits fourteenth.
The hitting is last in baseball: a .681 OPS is thirtieth, against a 4.17 FIP that is fourteenth.
The Pulse is not persuaded, 22% to reach October, fourteen games back in the East.
Bottom line: the schedule and a hot stretch moved them seven spots. The worst offense in baseball has not gone anywhere.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates · .691
63–66 · Talent .542 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · no change
Pittsburgh has the tenth-best roster in baseball and a 1% chance of playing in October.
The Pirates are 63–66, sixteen and a half back, and 6–9 over their last 15. The Talent rating is .542, tenth in baseball and eighth on our last board.
Everything underneath is good. A 3.98 FIP is sixth in the sport, the .338 wOBA is fourth, the .744 OPS is fourth, and the scoring margin is positive at +0.24. Only three clubs under .500 can say that.
None of it has produced wins, and wins are most of this ranking.
Bottom line: the clearest case on the board of a good team with a bad record, sixteen and a half games too late for it to matter.
16. Detroit Tigers · .689
61–66 · Talent .537 · Playoff 15% · Pennant 2.9% · ▼3
Detroit has slipped out of the top ten of the Talent column and out of the wild-card picture.
The Tigers rate .537, eleventh in baseball, sixth on our last board. They are 61–66 and five and a half behind the White Sox, having fallen three spots.
The scoring margin is +0.65, seventh-best in baseball, on a club five games under .500, and the .334 wOBA is seventh.
The Pulse has cut them to 15% for October and 2.9% for the pennant, down from 6.8% on the last board: the third-largest pennant drop in the sport.
Bottom line: still a better team than the record says, and no longer a top-ten roster.
17. St. Louis Cardinals · .689
65–62 · Talent .452 · Playoff 16% · Pennant 0.5% · ▲5
St. Louis went 10–5 and climbed five spots on the strength of it.
The Cardinals are 65–62 with a 16% playoff probability, thirteen and a half behind Milwaukee.
The roster rating has moved with the record for once: .452, up 29 points since August 7, twenty-eighth in baseball to twenty-fourth. That is still seven places worse than where they sit in these rankings.
The rest of the profile agrees with the rating rather than the record: a .306 wOBA twenty-fifth, a .698 OPS twenty-fourth, and a +0.08 scoring margin.
Bottom line: the biggest gap on the board between how a team has played lately and how good it is.
18. Miami Marlins · .684
64–63 · Talent .480 · Playoff 6% · Pennant 0.3% · ▼2
Miami is 64–63, a game over .500, and ranked eighteenth.
The Talent rating is .480, nineteenth in baseball and seventeenth on our last board, and the Pulse gives the Marlins 6% to reach October, ten behind Atlanta.
The hitting is the better half: a .326 wOBA eleventh and a .729 OPS eleventh, against a 4.21 FIP that ranks seventeenth.
Bottom line: a club playing to its level, which in this division means watching the wild card from ten games back.
19. Minnesota Twins · .684
63–65 · Talent .446 · Playoff 26% · Pennant 1.5% · ▲4
Minnesota gained four spots without a winning stretch, because the clubs around them fell faster.
The Twins are 63–65, 7–8 over their last 15, and four games behind the White Sox with a 9% division probability.
The roster rating is the weak point: .446, down twenty points since August 7, twentieth in baseball to twenty-fifth, and the worst of any club in the top twenty-two.
They have faced the sixth-hardest schedule at +0.8, which is carrying the ranking, and the −0.32 margin is what a 63–65 club usually looks like.
Bottom line: 26% to reach October on the twenty-fifth-best roster in baseball, which only happens in this division.
20. Baltimore Orioles · .682
61–65 · Talent .475 · Playoff 10% · Pennant 0.4% · ▼1
Baltimore has faced the hardest schedule in baseball at +2.0, and it is the single largest reason the Orioles rank twentieth rather than lower.
They are 61–65, fourteen and a half back, with a 10% playoff probability.
The Talent rating is .475, twentieth, up ten points since August 7. The 4.29 FIP is nineteenth and the −0.23 margin is mildly negative.
Bottom line: the hardest schedule in the sport, survived at four games under .500.
21. Cleveland Guardians · .681
61–65 · Talent .488 · Playoff 27% · Pennant 2.0% · ▼3
Cleveland went 5–10 and fell three spots, and is still 27% to reach October.
The Guardians are 61–65, five behind the White Sox, with a 9% division probability.
The Talent rating is .488, seventeenth in baseball and nineteenth on our last board, and the 4.04 FIP is eighth in the sport.
The offense is the hole: a .683 OPS ranks twenty-eighth, third-worst in baseball.
Bottom line: good pitching, no hitting, and a division soft enough that a 5–10 stretch cost them almost nothing.
22. Seattle Mariners · .679
59–67 · Talent .558 · Playoff 13% · Pennant 2.2% · ▼5
Seattle has the fifth-best roster in baseball and the twenty-second ranking. No club on the board has a wider gap between the two.
The Mariners are 59–67 and fell five spots since August 7, the largest drop on the board. The Talent rating went the other way, up eighteen points to .558, eleventh in baseball to fifth, level with Milwaukee and ahead of Atlanta.
The pitching backs it: a 3.97 FIP is fifth in the sport. The offense does not: a .686 OPS is twenty-seventh and the margin is −0.36.
October is 13%, four games behind Houston in a division nobody has claimed.
Bottom line: a roster the model has rated highly all year, on a club that is eight games under .500 in the middle of August.
23. Washington Nationals · .649
60–67 · Talent .474 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▼3
Washington has climbed six places in the Talent column and fallen three spots in the rankings.
The Nationals are 60–67 and 5–10 over their last 15, fourteen behind Atlanta at 1% to reach October.
The rating is now .474, twenty-first in baseball and twenty-seventh on August 7. The hitting is genuinely good: a .762 OPS is second in baseball and the .329 wOBA is ninth.
The pitching undoes all of it: a 4.84 FIP is twenty-eighth, third-worst in the sport, and the margin is a bare +0.10.
Bottom line: the second-best offense in baseball and the third-worst pitching, which is not a combination that wins games.
24. Cincinnati Reds · .639
60–66 · Talent .442 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · no change
Cincinnati is 60–66 and eighteen back, holding at twenty-fourth.
The Talent rating is .442, twenty-seventh in baseball, and the Reds have six games left against each of the two clubs fighting for their division.
The offense is the worst thing here: a .284 wOBA ranks twenty-ninth in the sport, and the −0.70 margin is the fourth-worst on the board.
October is 1%.
Bottom line: eighteen games out, and the same club it was on the last board.
25. New York Mets · .618
58–70 · Talent .403 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▲1
New York is 11–4 over its last 15, the hottest club in baseball, and sixteen and a half games out of first.
The rating sits at .403, twenty-ninth in baseball. Talent does not move with hot streaks, and the Mets have never rated well by it.
The rest is ordinary: 58–70, sixteen and a half back, 1% to reach October, a 4.06 FIP that ranks tenth and a −0.33 margin.
Bottom line: the hottest fifteen games in baseball, sixteen and a half games out.
26. Kansas City Royals · .591
53–74 · Talent .467 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▲1
Kansas City rates better than three clubs ahead of them in the standings and is twenty-one games under .500.
The Royals are 53–74, thirteen and a half back, and 1% to reach October.
The rating is .467, twenty-third in baseball, ahead of St. Louis, ahead of Minnesota, ahead of two clubs still in wild-card range. It was twenty-sixth on our last board.
The rest does not support it: a −0.83 scoring margin is third-worst in baseball and the 4.52 FIP is twenty-fourth.
Bottom line: a better roster than the record, and not close to enough of one.
27. San Francisco Giants · .571
51–74 · Talent .393 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▼2
San Francisco now has the worst Talent rating in baseball at .393, twenty-second on our last board and the largest fall in the column since then.
The Giants are 51–74 and 4–11 over their last 15, twenty-four games behind Los Angeles, and their BBMI Score is down 34 thousandths: the second-largest drop in the sport.
The odd part is the hitting: a .349 wOBA is the best in baseball, against a .713 OPS that is twentieth and a −0.59 scoring margin. Those three do not usually go together.
The 4.11 FIP is eleventh, which makes the roster rating harder to explain, not easier.
Bottom line: the lowest-rated roster in the sport and the best on-base numbers in it, twenty-four games out.
28. Los Angeles Angels · .570
50–76 · Talent .469 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▲2
The Angels are 8–7 over their last 15 and up two spots, at 50–76.
The Talent rating rose fifty points to .469 since August 7: the largest rise on the board, twenty-ninth in baseball to twenty-second, ahead of Kansas City, St. Louis and Minnesota.
Nothing else supports it. A .683 OPS is twenty-ninth, the 4.53 FIP is twenty-fifth, and the −0.67 margin is fifth-worst on the board.
Bottom line: the biggest rise in the Talent column on the board, attached to the worst record in the American League West.
29. Athletics · .556
49–77 · Talent .446 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▼1
The Athletics are 4–11 over their last 15 and have the worst scoring margin in baseball at −1.42.
They are 49–77, fourteen behind Houston, at 1% to reach October.
The Talent rating is .446, twenty-sixth in baseball and twenty-third on our last board. The .334 wOBA is eighth in baseball, and it is the only good number here.
The pitching is why: a 4.94 FIP is twenty-ninth, second-worst in the sport.
Bottom line: a lineup that gets on base and a staff that gives it all back, last in the West.
30. Colorado Rockies · .547
50–76 · Talent .404 · Playoff 1% · Pennant 0.1% · ▼1
Colorado is last in the rankings at .547 but no longer last in the Talent column: .404 is twenty-eighth, thirtieth on August 7. The Rockies did not climb. The Giants and Mets fell past them.
The Rockies are 50–76, twenty-five and a half back, 1% to reach October.
The pitching is the worst in baseball outright: a 5.09 FIP is thirtieth. So is the .255 wOBA, which is thirtieth by twenty-nine points.
The .741 OPS that ranks fifth is Coors Field, and nothing else.
Bottom line: last in the rankings, and that is the whole of the news.
The most important difference: rankings versus October
Milwaukee holding No. 1 is the headline.
The more useful result is what happens when the Power Rankings are laid beside the Playoff Pulse.
Exhibit 2 · Ranking order vs. October order
BBMI Score rank vs. pennant-probability rankGreen lines rise in October, red lines fall, gray holds position. Houston is the largest crossing on the board, 12th in BBMI Score, 7th in pennant probability. San Diego and Milwaukee give up the most ground going the other way. Clubs shown in gray on the right sit outside the board’s top thirteen.
Milwaukee has the strongest season résumé, the best record and the projected top seed, and it leads the board for a second straight installment. It is second in the National League in pennant probability and fourth in the sport, down from 24.3% on August 7.
Los Angeles has the strongest roster in baseball by a distance and the best pennant odds in the sport at 37.0%, and it is ranked second.
Tampa Bay ranks third overall and is second in the sport in pennant odds.
Houston ranks twelfth and is seventh.
The White Sox rank ninth on a roster the model grades eighteenth, and project as the American League’s No. 2 seed.
None of that is a flaw to be smoothed away.
A power ranking should not pretend a win in April evaporates because a roster looks different in August. A postseason simulation should not pretend an April roster is the one that will take the field in October.
The two systems answer different questions, and the gap between their answers is usually where the interesting teams are.
The board and the bracket have just stopped agreeing about the top of the National League.
They still disagree about Houston most of all.
Six weeks of schedule remain to settle which of them was right.
How BBMI ranks the teams
BBMI Score starts with wins already banked and projects the remaining schedule from current full-strength roster talent, then corrects for the strength of the opponents already faced.
The separate Talent rating is record-neutral. It measures the underlying quality of a fully healthy roster and counts short-term-injured regulars as returning rather than treating every temporary absence as permanent.
The Playoff Pulse is separate. Every remaining game and the full postseason bracket are simulated 10,000 times. Playoff % is how often a club reaches October. Pennant % is how often it reaches the World Series.
That separation is intentional.
The Power Rankings tell us how teams stack up across the season that has already happened. The Playoff Pulse tells us what the road from here looks like.
On August 7 this column ran under the headline Milwaukee Takes No. 1, but the Dodgers Still Own October.
Twelve days later both halves of that are more true than they were. Milwaukee’s lead on the board has gone from one thousandth to four. Los Angeles’s pennant probability has gone from 35.6% to 37.0% while Milwaukee’s has fallen from 24.3% to 18.2%.
The two systems have not converged. They have moved apart, in both directions at once, and neither of them is wrong.
Data: BBMI MLB Power Rankings, updated August 19 · BBMI Playoff Pulse, labeled August 18, same snapshot · 10,000 simulations · 531 games remaining. Movement is measured against the August 7 installment, the last one we published.
Disclosure: Independent sports analytics and model projections for informational purposes only. Rankings, forecasts and probabilities are model outputs, not financial or betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.