New Sideline, Same Franchise QB: Michigan’s 2026 Season, by the Numbers

Michigan spent 2025 winning games while the program unraveled off the field. The Wolverines went 9–4, which sounds fine until you fill in the rest: a November loss to No. 1 Ohio State — 27–9, snapping four straight wins in The Game and Michigan’s first defeat in the rivalry since 2019 — a 41–27 Citrus Bowl loss after Texas pulled away in the fourth quarter, and, in the middle of it all, a head coach fired for cause in December. Nine wins wasn’t a football crisis; what happened around the program plainly demanded a reset.

So 2026 is a reset. Utah legend Kyle Whittingham takes over with a nearly all-new staff, and the one constant is the most important one: Bryce Underwood, the most hyped recruit in the country a year ago, is back for his sophomore season as the unquestioned starter. The question is whether a new regime plus a second-year franchise quarterback adds up to a climb back toward the top — or a transition year in disguise.

What BBMI’s model says

This is where we come in. BBMI’s preseason model has Michigan 17th nationally and 6th of 18 in the Big Ten — genuinely good, a top-tier roster, and a notch more measured than the human polls, which slotted the Wolverines around 16th. The model sees a balanced, talented team; it just also sees the schedule.

And the schedule is the story. Unlike a lot of the Big Ten’s middle class, Michigan doesn’t get to dodge the heavyweights: the slate includes a home date with Oklahoma in Week 2, Iowa and Penn State at home, plus road trips to the two teams the model likes best in the country — at Oregon and at Ohio State — and a tricky home game with playoff-caliber Indiana. There’s a soft underbelly (Western Michigan, UTEP, Rutgers, Michigan State, UCLA) that keeps the floor high, but the ceiling runs straight through three teams BBMI expects Michigan to lose to.

Michigan doesn’t get to dodge anyone — Oklahoma, Penn State, Indiana, at Oregon, at Ohio State are all on here.

Pick the favorites

Pick the favorites straight up and it’s a tidy 9–3 — but that flatters the schedule. The model’s expected-win math is closer to 7.3, because the middle of this slate (Oklahoma, Penn State, Iowa) is a stack of narrow win-leans, not comfortable ones. Worth separating the two quantities, since they aren’t the same thing: model mean, 7.3 wins; most likely neighborhood, 7–5 to 8–4; BBMI’s single-record call, 8–4 — and three games (Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State) the model simply expects Michigan to lose. For a program that measures itself in playoff appearances, that’s the gap between the hype and the math.

The offseason that changed almost everything

Start with the thing that reshaped the program. The head-coaching job came open in the ugliest way possible: Sherrone Moore, 9–3 at the time, was fired for cause in December over off-field misconduct involving a staff member — an episode that also drew criminal charges, to which Moore pleaded no contest in March on two misdemeanors under a deal dismissing the earlier felony count, drawing 18 months’ probation in April. An independent review commissioned by the university and conducted by Jenner & Block examined the athletic department’s culture and handling of the matter. Athletic director Warde Manuel, who made the call, has since announced he’ll step down at the end of 2026. It was a lot, and it happened fast.

Into that mess Michigan hired Kyle Whittingham — the 21-year Utah institution, 177 career wins — on a five-year, $41 million deal, and he brought his program with him. Out went coordinators Chip Lindsey and Wink Martindale; in came OC Jason Beck (from Utah) and DC Jay Hill (from BYU, whose defense is billed as one of the most complex in the country). The roster followed the same Utah/BYU pipeline through the portal. This is a major staff overhaul wrapped around a roster that was already talented — the kind of reset that can go either direction in year one.

The portal churn was enormous, but the incoming class is unmistakably Whittingham’s — Utah and BYU pieces built to fit the new schemes.

Kyle Whittingham, year one

Here’s the case for calm: Whittingham is one of the best program-builders of his era, a coach who turned Utah into a Pac-12 and then Big 12 power on the strength of defense, toughness, and player development — exactly the identity Michigan wants to reclaim. He inherits an offensive line and a defense that grade among the Big Ten’s better units, a returning franchise quarterback, and a fan base desperate to get back to beating Ohio State. On paper it’s one of the softer landings a first-year coach could ask for.

Here’s the case for patience: it’s still year one. Two brand-new coordinators are installing new systems on both sides of the ball, a chunk of the roster turned over in the portal, and the schedule offers no easing-in period. First-year regimes — even great ones — usually pay a small tax while everyone learns the language. The model’s 8–4 is, in a sense, that tax priced in: a good team, a hard schedule, and a transition all landing in the same fall.

The quarterback question

This is the position that makes Michigan interesting, and his name is Bryce Underwood. A year ago he was the consensus No. 1 overall recruit — a Belleville, Michigan kid who famously flipped from LSU to stay home — and he started from Week 1 as a true freshman, the first Wolverine to do that since Tate Forcier in 2009. The freshman tape was exactly what you’d expect: flashes of stardom, freshman mistakes. He threw for 2,428 yards and 11 touchdowns, ran for another 392 and six scores, and posted seven 200-yard passing games (a Michigan freshman record) — but he also threw nine interceptions, including three in the Ohio State loss, and the turnovers were the season-long knock.

Now he’s a sophomore in an offense being custom-built for him by Jason Beck, whose Utah quarterbacks thrived on movement and play-action. If the year-two leap is real — cleaner decisions, fewer giveaways, the same running threat — Michigan has a genuine star and a much higher ceiling than 8–4. Veteran transfer Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Colorado State) adds experience to the room, though true freshman Tommy Carr has emerged as the leading challenger for QB2 entering fall camp. But make no mistake: this season rises or falls on Underwood’s development.

The run game: reloaded, not depleted

Michigan’s backfield lost a starter and barely blinked. Justice Haynes, who ran for 857 yards and 10 touchdowns in seven games before a foot injury ended his 2025, transferred to Georgia Tech — but Jordan Marshall is back after a breakout redshirt-sophomore year (932 yards, 10 touchdowns, 6.2 a carry) and steps in as the clear lead back. Behind him is five-star freshman Savion Hiter, the No. 1 running back in the 2026 class, though depth thins out past the top two after Micah Ka’apana’s injury. Behind a typically strong Michigan offensive line, this is one of the more intriguing one-two combinations in the league — and exactly the kind of downhill run game that takes pressure off a young quarterback.

The defense: rebuild the rush, trust the scheme

Michigan’s defense was a strength in 2025 under Wink Martindale, particularly against the run, even if it wasn’t elite across the board — the Wolverines allowed 20.4 points a game, 29th nationally. But the NFL took the teeth out of the pass rush. Edge Derrick Moore (a second-round pick by the Lions), linebacker Jaishawn Barham, and defensive lineman TJ Guy are all gone, a trio that combined for the bulk of the team’s sacks. Rebuilding that front is job one for new coordinator Jay Hill.

He’ll do it with a familiar blueprint and familiar names: a heavy infusion of Utah defenders — projected starter John Henry Daley on the edge, tackle Jonah Lea’ea, and All-Big 12 corner Smith Snowden — layered onto returning talent like versatile DB Zeke Berry and corner Jyaire Hill. Oklahoma transfer Taylor Tatum, a running back turned defensive back, is listed at safety on the 2026 roster. Hill’s scheme has a reputation for complexity and disguise, which can travel well when the talent is there. The pieces are, on paper, a top-half Big Ten defense again. The caveat is the same one facing the whole team: a new system, installed fast, tested early.

The in-state angle

Every other team in this series has told some version of a thinning-pipeline story. Michigan’s is the opposite. The Wolverines didn’t just hold serve in-state — they landed the single biggest recruiting prize in the country and kept him home. Bryce Underwood, out of Belleville, was the No. 1 overall player in the 2025 class, and his decision to flip from LSU back to Michigan was the offseason’s defining recruiting moment nationally. When your in-state headliner is the best prospect in America, the pipeline is doing just fine.

There’s more coming, too: 2026 quarterback signee Tommy Carr is a Saline, Michigan product, part of a class that keeps a foot firmly planted in the state even as Whittingham’s staff casts a national net. For a program whose identity has always been tied to Michigan kids, keeping the Underwood-level talent at home is the strongest possible statement.

BBMI is rolling out college football coverage as the season approaches, and Michigan is one of the first teams up. Model ratings are preseason and update as real games are played.