MLB · Model Accuracy

Model Accuracy

Early-season note: walk-forward validation uses 2024-2025 real point-in-time team stats. Published numbers may update as the 2026 season accrues a meaningful live sample and we run periodic re-validations against the latest canonical data.

Full public log of every BBMI MLB pick vs actual results

Live Since March 30, 2026

Results are tracked transparently from day one. Walk-forward validation (2024-2025) is the primary performance reference. Statistical confidence in live results requires 200+ picks. All win percentages include 95% confidence intervals.

55.6%
Cover Rate
5W – 4L · 9 picks
-12.7%
ROI
at -175 juice · flat $100
26.7–81.1%
95% CI
Wilson score interval
Weekly Performance Breakdown
WeekPicksRecordWin %ROI
4/20 – 4/2610-10.0%-100.0%
4/13 – 4/1910-10.0%-100.0%
3/30 – 4/575-271.4%+12.2%
Season Total95-455.6%-12.7%
ROI at -175 juice

Run Line Pick History

Date▼
Away⇅
Home⇅
BBMI Pick
Edge⇅
Score⇅
RL Result
2026-04-22Toronto Blue Jays logoToronto Blue Jays(#20)Los Angeles Angels logoLos Angeles Angels(#27)
Toronto Blue Jays logoToronto Blue Jays +1.5
0.4723–7✗
2026-04-17San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres(#6)Los Angeles Angels logoLos Angeles Angels(#27)
San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres +1.5
0.7040–8✗
2026-04-05San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres(#6)Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox(#19)
San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres +1.5
0.3618–6✓
2026-04-05Milwaukee Brewers logoMilwaukee Brewers(#4)Kansas City Royals logoKansas City Royals(#18)
Milwaukee Brewers logoMilwaukee Brewers +1.5
0.3468–5✓
2026-04-04San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres(#6)Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox(#19)
San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres +1.5
0.2413–2✓
2026-04-03San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres(#6)Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox(#19)
San Diego Padres logoSan Diego Padres +1.5
0.2512–5✗
2026-04-02Minnesota Twins logoMinnesota Twins(#11)Kansas City Royals logoKansas City Royals(#18)
Minnesota Twins logoMinnesota Twins +1.5
0.4235–1✓
2026-03-30Chicago White Sox logoChicago White Sox(#28)Miami Marlins logoMiami Marlins(#14)
Chicago White Sox logoChicago White Sox +1.5
0.3459–4✓
2026-03-30Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox(#19)Houston Astros logoHouston Astros(#24)
Boston Red Sox logoBoston Red Sox +1.5
0.1791–8✗

Walk-forward results represent historical simulation using data available before each game. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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