2026 NFL Season Previews · NFC North.
By-the-numbers previews for the 2026 NFL season, division by division: projected records, the games that decide the season, and exactly what the model can and can't see. NFC North first — NFC North complete — Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit.
Detroit Is the NFC North Favorite. The First Month Will Test It.
Jared Goff and one of the NFL’s best offenses give Detroit a championship ceiling. A rebuilt offensive line and four games without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph give it an immediate problem. BBMI rates the Lions fourth of 32 at +4.8, projects 11.5–5.5 with an 86% playoff chance, and makes them 60% to win the division.
#4 of 32 · +4.8 · 11.5–5.5 projected · 86% playoffs · 60% NFC North02NFL · Season PreviewWhy Plus-22 Is Unlikely to Repeat: Chicago’s 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Chicago won the NFC North at 11–6 behind the best turnover margin in football, and two defenders who accounted for 15 of those 33 takeaways are gone. Pro Football Reference put the Bears at 9.1 expected wins; they won 11. BBMI rates Chicago +1.6, 15th of 32, and projects 9.3–7.7 with a 47% playoff chance — first team out of the projected NFC field.
#15 of 32 · +1.6 · 9.3–7.7 projected · 47% playoffs · 18% NFC North03NFL · Season PreviewA Good Defense and a $1.3 Million Quarterback: Minnesota's 2026 Season, by the Numbers
Minnesota rated 6th in defensive EPA and 22nd on offense in 2025, started three quarterbacks, and missed the playoffs by the width of a Green Bay tie. BBMI projects 8.4-8.6 in 2026, last in a division it likes all three rivals in, with Kyler Murray signed for the veteran minimum to make the passing game functional enough for the defense to matter.
#18 of 32 · 0.0 · 8.4–8.6 projected · 30% playoffs · 6% NFC North04NFL · Season PreviewThe Seven Seed, Three Years Running: Green Bay's 2026 Season
Green Bay opens 2026 without Micah Parsons, after an offseason that shipped out 108 starts and left no first-round pick to replace them. BBMI rates the Packers +2.8 per game, 12th of 32, and projects 9.7–7.3 with a 55% playoff chance and 17% to win the NFC North — behind Detroit at 60%. The number that matters most is the spread around it: the middle 80% of simulated seasons runs from 7 to 12 wins.
#12 of 32 · +2.8 · 9.7–7.3 projected · 55% playoffs · 17% NFC North