Men's Picks Model Accuracy
Weekly comparison of BBMI model vs Vegas lines
🎯 Where the model performs best
Overall†
56.9%
1,911 picks (edge ≥ 2)
Edge ≥ 6 pts
66.0%
353 picks
+9.1pts
Edge ≥ 8 pts
72.6%
117 picks
+15.7pts
† Overall record includes only picks where edge ≥ 2 pts. The Vegas line is captured at a specific point in time — lines routinely move 1–2 points between open and tip-off, and can vary by a point or more across different books. A difference smaller than 2 pts is within normal market noise and does not represent a meaningful BBMI disagreement with Vegas. These games are shown in the table below but marked ~ and excluded from stats.
About the Edge Filter & Performance Stats
Headline stats (Overall, ≥6 pts, ≥8 pts) count only picks where edge ≥ 2 pts. The Vegas line is captured at a specific point in time — lines routinely move 1–2 points between open and tip-off, and can vary by a point or more across different books. A difference smaller than 2 pts is within normal market noise and does not represent a meaningful BBMI disagreement with Vegas. Those games are shown in the table but marked ~ and excluded from the record. The ≥6 and ≥8 pt tier labels were identified by analyzing this season's data rather than pre-specified before the season. Starting next season, edge tiers will be fixed in advance. All win percentages include 95% confidence intervals.
Minimum Edge (|BBMI Line − Vegas Line|):
Filter by Team:
Tip: The model performs best when edge is highest. Try ≥ 6 points to see picks where BBMI most strongly disagrees with Vegas.
Summary Metrics
| Sample Size | % Beats Vegas | Wagered | Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,495 | 55.6% | $249,500 | $265,658 | 6.5% |
| — | 95% CI: 53.6%–57.5% | — | — | — |
Team Performance Analysis
| Rank | Team | Picked | Win % | Wagered | Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Navy | 11 | 100.0% | $1,100 | $2,111 | 91.9% |
| 2 |  Cal State Fullerton | 10 | 100.0% | $1,000 | $1,890 | 89.0% |
| 3 |  Loyola (MD) | 6 | 100.0% | $600 | $1,147 | 91.2% |
| 4 |  Robert Morris | 6 | 100.0% | $600 | $1,151 | 91.8% |
| 5 |  UNC Wilmington | 5 | 100.0% | $500 | $974 | 94.8% |
| Minimum 3 games required. Based on current edge filter (≥0.0 points). | ||||||
Historical Results By Week
Team records indicate Win-Loss when BBMI picks that team to beat Vegas.
Weekly Summary
| Sample Size | % Beats Vegas | Wagered | Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 52.4% | $14,500 | $14,479 | -0.1% |
| — | 95% CI: 44.3%–60.4% | — | — | — |
Weekly Performance Breakdown — All Weeks95% confidence intervals shown
| Week | Picks | Win % | 95% CI | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/9 – 3/15 | 145 | 52.4% | 44.3% – 60.4% | -0.1% |
| 3/2 – 3/8 | 273 | 49.5% | 43.6% – 55.3% | -5.8% |
| 2/23 – 3/1 | 224 | 45.1% | 38.7% – 51.6% | -13.9% |
| 2/16 – 2/22 | 295 | 52.2% | 46.5% – 57.8% | +0.1% |
| 2/9 – 2/15 | 287 | 61.3% | 55.6% – 66.8% | +17.9% |
| 2/2 – 2/8 | 287 | 56.8% | 51.0% – 62.4% | +8.6% |
| 1/26 – 2/1 | 280 | 52.5% | 46.7% – 58.3% | +0.5% |
| 1/19 – 1/25 | 270 | 63.0% | 57.1% – 68.5% | +20.0% |
| 1/12 – 1/18 | 182 | 64.3% | 57.1% – 70.9% | +23.2% |
| 1/5 – 1/11 | 241 | 58.9% | 52.6% – 64.9% | +14.8% |
| 12/29 – 1/4 | 11 | 45.5% | 21.3% – 72.0% | -9.1% |
| Season Total | 2,495 | 55.6% | 53.6% – 57.5% | +6.1% |
A wider 95% CI range indicates a smaller sample where week-level results are less conclusive. Season ROI is approximate.
🟡 Gold rows = Edge ≥ 5 pts — historically highest accuracy tier~ Faded rows = Edge < 2 pts — within normal line movement, excluded from stats
Date⇅ | Away⇅ | Home⇅ | Home Line | Edge▼ | Actual Line⇅ | Away Sc.⇅ | Home Sc.⇅ | Bet⇅ | Win⇅ | Result⇅ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vegas⇅ | BBMI⇅ | ||||||||||
| 2026-03-12 |  Buffalo5-5 |  Akron1-1 | -13.5 | -3.5 | 🟡10.0 | -3 | 70 | 73 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Oregon State2-2 |  Gonzaga2-2 | -19.5 | -9.5 | 🟡10.0 | -9 | 56 | 65 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Delaware State0-1 |  Morgan State7-4 | 2.5 | -6.5 | 🟡9.0 | 5 | 75 | 70 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Brigham Young4-3 |  Houston | -10.5 | -2.5 | 🟡8.0 | -7 | 66 | 73 | $100 | $185 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Loyola (IL) |  Richmond8-6 | -5.5 | -13.5 | 🟡8.0 | 8 | 75 | 67 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Georgetown6-3 |  UConn2-1 | -13.5 | -6.5 | 🟡7.0 | -16 | 51 | 67 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Abilene Christian1-1 |  Utah Tech8-3 | -2.5 | -9.5 | 🟡7.0 | -6 | 74 | 80 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  California8-7 |  Florida State2-2 | -4.5 | 2.5 | 🟡7.0 | -6 | 89 | 95 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  USC5-6 |  Washington3-5 | -5.5 | 1.5 | 🟡7.0 | -4 | 79 | 83 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Alcorn State2-1 |  Prairie View A&M8-6 | -6.5 | -13.5 | 🟡7.0 | -9 | 56 | 65 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Vanderbilt5-5 |  Florida | -8.5 | -2.5 | 🟡6.0 | 17 | 91 | 74 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Utah Tech8-3 |  California Baptist2-0 | -6.5 | -0.5 | 🟡6.0 | -14 | 72 | 86 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Alabama A&M4-6 |  Texas Southern8-4 | -1.5 | 4.5 | 🟡6.0 | 11 | 85 | 74 | $100 | $177 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Georgetown6-3 |  Villanova3-3 | -8.5 | -2.5 | 🟡6.0 | 14 | 78 | 64 | $100 | $187 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  UC Santa Barbara4-6 |  UC Davis9-6 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 🟡6.0 | -6 | 73 | 79 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Weber State5-4 |  Eastern Washington | -3.5 | 2.5 | 🟡6.0 | -5 | 79 | 84 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Vermont3-3 |  UMBC9-5 | -3.5 | 1.5 | 🟡5.0 | -15 | 59 | 74 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Kentucky4-2 | Florida | -10.5 | -5.5 | 🟡5.0 | -8 | 63 | 71 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Kent State5-6 | Akron1-1 | -6.5 | -1.5 | 🟡5.0 | -7 | 68 | 75 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Kansas7-3 | Houston | -5.5 | -0.5 | 🟡5.0 | -22 | 47 | 69 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Nevada9-4 |  Grand Canyon1-1 | -4.5 | 0.5 | 🟡5.0 | 4 | 84 | 80 | $100 | $187 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Northwestern8-8 |  Purdue1-2 | -12.5 | -7.5 | 🟡5.0 | -13 | 68 | 81 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Tulane6-5 |  Charlotte4-5 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 🟡5.0 | -14 | 60 | 74 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Colorado State6-4 |  San Diego State2-3 | -5.5 | -0.5 | 🟡5.0 | -9 | 62 | 71 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | Georgetown6-3 |  DePaul5-4 | -1.5 | 3.5 | 🟡5.0 | 7 | 63 | 56 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Prairie View A&M8-6 |  Bethune-Cookman2-2 | -5.5 | -0.5 | 🟡5.0 | 4 | 71 | 67 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Air Force2-3 | Nevada9-4 | -20.5 | -25.5 | 🟡5.0 | -35 | 45 | 80 | $100 | $177 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Grambling State5-3 |  Jackson State1-0 | 6.5 | 11.5 | 🟡5.0 | -3 | 65 | 68 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Mississippi Valley State2-6 | Grambling State5-3 | -12.5 | -17.5 | 🟡5.0 | -25 | 52 | 77 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Dayton1-1 |  Saint Louis8-2 | -5.5 | -1.5 | 4.0 | 1 | 70 | 69 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Purdue1-2 |  UCLA8-5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 7 | 73 | 66 | $100 | $193 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Tulsa6-5 |  Wichita State5-1 | -1.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | -13 | 68 | 81 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | Purdue1-2 |  Nebraska6-6 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 16 | 74 | 58 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Miami (FL)4-4 |  Virginia1-2 | -4.5 | -0.5 | 4.0 | -22 | 62 | 84 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Texas-Arlington8-4 |  Utah Valley3-3 | -8.5 | -4.5 | 4.0 | -2 | 65 | 67 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Nevada9-4 |  Utah State2-3 | -6.5 | -2.5 | 4.0 | -13 | 66 | 79 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  George Washington4-5 |  Fordham9-3 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 4 | 66 | 62 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  San Jose State1-2 |  New Mexico5-1 | -13.5 | -17.5 | 4.0 | -16 | 77 | 93 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Xavier7-4 | UConn2-1 | -15.5 | -11.5 | 4.0 | -25 | 68 | 93 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  TCU6-1 | Kansas7-3 | -5.5 | -1.5 | 4.0 | -5 | 73 | 78 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Idaho5-1 |  Montana8-6 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 4.0 | 11 | 77 | 66 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | Xavier7-4 |  Marquette1-0 | -4.5 | -0.5 | 4.0 | 2 | 89 | 87 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Tulane6-5 |  Memphis2-3 | -3.5 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 12 | 81 | 69 | $100 | $187 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Tarleton State1-6 | Abilene Christian1-1 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | -6 | 78 | 84 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Temple5-6 |  Florida Atlantic3-3 | -1.5 | 2.5 | 4.0 | -4 | 59 | 63 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Providence3-5 |  Butler6-7 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 4.0 | 10 | 91 | 81 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Maryland |  Oregon2-6 | -3.5 | -7.5 | 4.0 | 10 | 70 | 60 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 |  UMass Lowell6-3 | UMBC9-5 | -8.5 | -4.5 | 4.0 | -22 | 69 | 91 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Northern Colorado2-4 | Montana8-6 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 4.0 | -6 | 89 | 95 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Towson4-1 |  Hofstra8-4 | -3.5 | -7.5 | 4.0 | -3 | 65 | 68 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 |  North Carolina Central6-5 |  Howard5-0 | -12.5 | -9.5 | 3.0 | -7 | 63 | 70 | $100 | $193 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Charlotte4-5 |  South Florida2-1 | -14.5 | -11.5 | 3.0 | -22 | 64 | 86 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Ohio State8-3 |  Michigan1-0 | -12.5 | -9.5 | 3.0 | -4 | 67 | 71 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Charlotte4-5 |  UAB4-5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | 3.0 | 5 | 83 | 78 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 |  North Texas10-1 | Tulsa6-5 | -7.5 | -4.5 | 3.0 | -6 | 84 | 90 | $100 | $193 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Massachusetts3-3 |  Toledo6-2 | -3.5 | -6.5 | 3.0 | -10 | 67 | 77 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  South Carolina State3-2 | Howard5-0 | -15.5 | -18.5 | 3.0 | -17 | 61 | 78 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Ole Miss4-4 |  Alabama1-1 | -10.5 | -7.5 | 3.0 | 1 | 80 | 79 | $100 | $189 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Delaware State0-1 | North Carolina Central6-5 | -4.5 | -7.5 | 3.0 | -6 | 53 | 59 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Massachusetts3-3 |  Miami (OH)5-4 | -7.5 | -10.5 | 3.0 | 4 | 87 | 83 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | UC Davis9-6 | Cal State Fullerton10-0 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -12 | 70 | 82 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  NC State3-4 | Virginia1-2 | -6.5 | -3.5 | 3.0 | -7 | 74 | 81 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Providence3-5 |  St. John's4-1 | -10.5 | -7.5 | 3.0 | -13 | 72 | 85 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Washington3-5 |  Wisconsin8-1 | -7.5 | -4.5 | 3.0 | -3 | 82 | 85 | $100 | $187 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Ohio | Kent State5-6 | -4.5 | -7.5 | 3.0 | -11 | 75 | 86 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Ole Miss4-4 |  Georgia3-5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | 3.0 | 4 | 76 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Loyola (IL) |  Davidson5-3 | -7.5 | -10.5 | 3.0 | -5 | 59 | 64 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Maryland-Eastern Shore1-4 | North Carolina Central6-5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 3.0 | -7 | 76 | 83 | $100 | $187 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Northwestern8-8 |  Indiana4-6 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 13 | 74 | 61 | $100 | $180 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Boston University6-3 |  Lehigh8-2 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 3.0 | -14 | 60 | 74 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Cal Poly |  UC San Diego2-4 | -5.5 | -8.5 | 3.0 | -3 | 69 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | Maryland |  Iowa3-7 | -12.5 | -15.5 | 3.0 | -11 | 64 | 75 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  LSU8-7 | Kentucky4-2 | -7.5 | -4.5 | 3.0 | -5 | 82 | 87 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Mississippi State1-2 |  Auburn3-3 | -7.5 | -10.5 | 3.0 | -18 | 61 | 79 | $100 | $177 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Wyoming6-7 |  UNLV3-2 | -3.5 | -0.5 | 3.0 | -3 | 70 | 73 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 | Idaho5-1 | Eastern Washington | -1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 13 | 81 | 68 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Missouri State |  Florida International5-6 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 3.0 | 3 | 75 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | Montana8-6 |  Portland State7-4 | -2.5 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3 | 75 | 72 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Campbell0-3 |  Monmouth4-3 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 3.0 | -10 | 64 | 74 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  New Orleans7-4 |  Texas A&M-CC2-5 | -1.5 | 1.5 | 3.0 | -13 | 61 | 74 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Detroit-Mercy8-3 | Robert Morris6-0 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 3.0 | 6 | 70 | 64 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Wisconsin8-1 | Michigan1-0 | -12.5 | -10.5 | 2.0 | -3 | 65 | 68 | $100 | $189 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Saint Joseph's11-1 |  VCU2-1 | -6.5 | -4.5 | 2.0 | -13 | 64 | 77 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | Missouri State |  Louisiana Tech10-3 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | -3 | 66 | 69 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Wisconsin8-1 |  Illinois1-3 | -7.5 | -5.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 91 | 88 | $100 | $193 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Iowa State2-1 |  Arizona4-1 | -4.5 | -6.5 | 2.0 | -2 | 80 | 82 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | UCLA8-5 |  Michigan State4-2 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | 4 | 88 | 84 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Oklahoma5-3 |  Arkansas8-3 | -6.5 | -4.5 | 2.0 | -3 | 79 | 82 | $100 | $189 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  St. Bonaventure5-3 |  George Mason7-3 | -3.5 | -5.5 | 2.0 | 6 | 63 | 57 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Louisville2-1 | Miami (FL)4-4 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 2.0 | -5 | 73 | 78 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Rhode Island2-1 |  Duquesne6-5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | -6 | 61 | 67 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | South Carolina State3-2 |  Norfolk State4-5 | -8.5 | -10.5 | 2.0 | 6 | 88 | 82 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff5-7 |  Southern7-4 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | -3 | 81 | 84 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | UC San Diego2-4 |  Cal State Northridge2-4 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | -10 | 70 | 80 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Florida Atlantic3-3 | North Texas10-1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 2.0 | -4 | 70 | 74 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | San Jose State1-2 |  Boise State1-1 | -14.5 | -16.5 | 2.0 | 10 | 84 | 74 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | Missouri State |  Liberty4-4 | -6.5 | -8.5 | 2.0 | 8 | 77 | 69 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | Ole Miss4-4 |  Texas2-0 | -6.5 | -4.5 | 2.0 | 10 | 76 | 66 | $100 | $183 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Jackson State1-0 |  Florida A&M3-1 | -5.5 | -7.5 | 2.0 | -10 | 60 | 70 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Rutgers4-2 |  Minnesota6-6 | -5.5 | -7.5 | 2.0 | 5 | 72 | 67 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Oklahoma State8-8 | TCU6-1 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | -7 | 88 | 95 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Wake Forest5-6 |  Clemson6-1 | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | -9 | 62 | 71 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | St. Bonaventure5-3 |  La Salle3-1 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 2.0 | 19 | 99 | 80 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Arizona State6-4 | Iowa State2-1 | -10.5 | -8.5 | 2.0 | -49 | 42 | 91 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | Monmouth4-3 | Hofstra8-4 | -4.5 | -2.5 | 2.0 | -6 | 69 | 75 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 |  New Mexico State5-6 |  Jacksonville State5-4 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 5 | 68 | 63 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Georgia Southern1-3 |  Troy7-5 | -6.5 | -8.5 | 2.0 | -16 | 61 | 77 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Furman2-3 |  East Tennessee State5-6 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | 15 | 76 | 61 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Cornell2-1 |  Yale2-3 | -4.5 | -3.5 | ~1.0 | -12 | 76 | 88 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-14 |  Pennsylvania5-1 |  Harvard5-1 | -2.5 | -3.5 | ~1.0 | 2 | 62 | 60 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | George Washington4-5 | Saint Louis8-2 | -6.5 | -5.5 | ~1.0 | -7 | 81 | 88 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | New Mexico5-1 | San Diego State2-3 | -1.5 | -0.5 | ~1.0 | -2 | 62 | 64 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | Prairie View A&M8-6 | Alabama A&M4-6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | ~1.0 | 19 | 74 | 55 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | St. Bonaventure5-3 | Dayton1-1 | -6.5 | -5.5 | ~1.0 | -5 | 63 | 68 | $100 | $196 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Tennessee3-2 | Vanderbilt5-5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | ~1.0 | -7 | 68 | 75 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-13 | Duquesne6-5 | VCU2-1 | -8.5 | -7.5 | ~1.0 | -5 | 66 | 71 | $100 | $189 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 |  Seton Hall6-4 | St. John's4-1 | -7.5 | -8.5 | ~1.0 | -10 | 68 | 78 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Davidson5-3 | Saint Joseph's11-1 | -2.5 | -3.5 | ~1.0 | -12 | 58 | 70 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-13 | Southern7-4 | Florida A&M3-1 | 2.5 | 3.5 | ~1.0 | 3 | 73 | 70 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Iowa3-7 | Ohio State8-3 | -1.5 | -0.5 | ~1.0 | -3 | 69 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Iowa State2-1 |  Texas Tech4-0 | 5.5 | 6.5 | ~1.0 | 22 | 75 | 53 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Bowling Green5-6 | Toledo6-2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | ~1.0 | -1 | 76 | 77 | $100 | $185 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Creighton1-4 | Seton Hall6-4 | -3.5 | -2.5 | ~1.0 | -11 | 61 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Auburn3-3 | Tennessee3-2 | -5.5 | -4.5 | ~1.0 | -10 | 62 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | UNLV3-2 | Utah State2-3 | -7.5 | -8.5 | ~1.0 | -20 | 60 | 80 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Middle Tennessee State5-2 | Louisiana Tech10-3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | ~1.0 | -11 | 69 | 80 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Florida State2-2 |  Duke3-1 | -16.5 | -17.5 | ~1.0 | -1 | 79 | 80 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Southern Utah4-2 | Texas-Arlington8-4 | -5.5 | -6.5 | ~1.0 | -6 | 63 | 69 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 |  Kennesaw State5-8 |  Western Kentucky3-2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | ~1.0 | 9 | 96 | 87 | $100 | $187 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-12 | Rutgers4-2 | UCLA8-5 | -11.5 | -10.5 | ~1.0 | -13 | 59 | 72 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-12 | Oklahoma5-3 |  Texas A&M5-3 | -2.5 | -1.5 | ~1.0 | 20 | 83 | 63 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 | Brigham Young4-3 |  West Virginia3-7 | 4.5 | 3.5 | ~1.0 | 20 | 68 | 48 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  South Carolina4-8 | Oklahoma5-3 | -7.5 | -6.5 | ~1.0 | -12 | 74 | 86 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Pittsburgh1-1 | NC State3-4 | -9.5 | -10.5 | ~1.0 | -10 | 88 | 98 | $100 | $177 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-11 |  Cincinnati0-1 |  UCF6-7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | ~1.0 | -1 | 65 | 66 | $100 | $177 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Baylor2-4 | Arizona State6-4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | ~1.0 | -4 | 79 | 83 | $100 | $193 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Utah9-2 | Cincinnati0-1 | -11.5 | -10.5 | ~1.0 | -7 | 66 | 73 | $100 | $198 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-10 | Texas A&M-CC2-5 |  Stephen F. Austin7-4 | -6.5 | -7.5 | ~1.0 | -2 | 58 | 60 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | Detroit-Mercy8-3 |  Wright State5-2 | -3.5 | -4.5 | ~1.0 | -3 | 63 | 66 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 |  Santa Clara3-3 | Gonzaga2-2 | -6.5 | -5.5 | ~1.0 | -11 | 68 | 79 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | Oklahoma State8-8 |  Colorado4-5 | -1.5 | -0.5 | ~1.0 | 9 | 92 | 83 | $100 | $195 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 | Santa Clara3-3 |  Saint Mary's3-1 | -4.5 | -3.5 | ~1.0 | 5 | 76 | 71 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-09 |  Northern Kentucky1-1 | Wright State5-2 | -1.5 | -2.5 | ~1.0 | -13 | 90 | 103 | $100 | $191 | ✓ |
| 2026-03-14 | Ole Miss4-4 | Arkansas8-3 | -9.5 | -9.5 | ~0.0 | -3 | 90 | 93 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-13 | Cal State Fullerton10-0 |  Hawaii4-2 | -3.5 | -3.5 | ~0.0 | -15 | 63 | 78 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-13 | Kennesaw State5-8 |  Sam Houston State5-8 | -3.5 | -3.5 | ~0.0 | 6 | 79 | 73 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-13 | Cal State Northridge2-4 |  UC Irvine7-2 | -4.5 | -4.5 | ~0.0 | -15 | 78 | 93 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-13 | Clemson6-1 | Duke3-1 | -11.5 | -11.5 | ~0.0 | -12 | 61 | 73 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-12 | Kentucky4-2 |  Missouri5-3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | ~0.0 | 6 | 78 | 72 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-12 | UCF6-7 | Arizona4-1 | -15.5 | -15.5 | ~0.0 | -22 | 59 | 81 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-12 | Clemson6-1 |  North Carolina6-1 | -1.5 | -1.5 | ~0.0 | 1 | 80 | 79 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-11 |  Fresno State10-3 | Colorado State6-4 | -7.5 | -7.5 | ~0.0 | -4 | 63 | 67 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-11 | New Mexico State5-6 | Sam Houston State5-8 | -4.5 | -4.5 | ~0.0 | -8 | 61 | 69 | $100 | $0 | ✗ |
| 2026-03-10 | Pittsburgh1-1 |  Stanford1-3 | -5.5 | -5.5 | ~0.0 | 1 | 64 | 63 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-10 |  Kansas State3-4 | Brigham Young4-3 | -10.5 | -10.5 | ~0.0 | -14 | 91 | 105 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-10 |  NJIT6-2 | Vermont3-3 | -12.5 | -12.5 | ~0.0 | -9 | 54 | 63 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-10 | Wake Forest5-6 |  Virginia Tech6-5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | ~0.0 | 6 | 95 | 89 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-10 |  Penn State0-2 | Northwestern8-8 | -6.5 | -6.5 | ~0.0 | -10 | 66 | 76 | $0 | $0 | |
| 2026-03-09 | Alcorn State2-1 |  Alabama State2-2 | -7.5 | -7.5 | ~0.0 | 12 | 77 | 65 | $0 | $0 | |
Understanding the Numbers — A Guide for New Visitors
1
Win % (% Beats Vegas)
The share of picks where BBMI correctly predicted which side of the spread would cover. The break-even point at standard −110 juice is ~52.4%. The 95% confidence interval beneath this number shows the plausible range for the true underlying rate — a wider interval means a smaller sample with less certainty. Only picks with edge ≥ 2 pts are included — differences smaller than 2 pts are within normal line movement and book-to-book variation, not a genuine model disagreement with the market.
2
ROI (Return on Investment)
Simulated return assuming a flat $100 wager per pick at −110 odds. Positive ROI means the model has generated paper profit over the tracked period. Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results, and real-world factors like line movement and juice vary.
3
Edge Column — including the ~ marker
Shown for every row — always a non-negative number representing how far apart BBMI and Vegas are on a given game. Rows with Edge ≥ 5 are highlighted in gold — this is the tier with historically the strongest accuracy. Rows marked ~ have edge < 2 pts — within normal line movement and book-to-book variation — and are shown for full transparency but excluded from stats. The Edge Filter above the table controls which games appear.
4
Weekly Breakdown Table
Shows week-by-week results so you can assess consistency rather than just the season headline. Week-to-week variance is normal — even a model with a genuine long-run edge will have losing weeks. Look for the cluster of weekly results around the season mean, and use the 95% CI column to judge how much weight to put on any single week.
5
Sample Size & Track Record
One season of data is a starting point, not a verdict. Forecasting research generally indicates that 3–4 seasons of prospective (pre-specified, out-of-sample) picks are needed to distinguish genuine skill from a good variance run with statistical confidence. BBMI's 2025–26 season results are promising — and will be tracked transparently each year to build an honest long-term record.