NCAA Football · Product
NCAA Football — Spread
Premium · edge ≥ 6 pts · 64.3% ATS win rate · n=347 · walk-forward
walk-forward
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ≥ 6 pts. Spread capped at ±14 for the premium tier (config MAX_SPREAD_PREMIUM=14). Walk-forward validated across two seasons (2024–2025); 2026 season opens August. Phase 0d corrected the non-event predicate to keep legitimate home shutouts.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6–8 pts | 79 | 49–30 | 62.0% | [51.0, 71.9] |
| 8–10 pts | 64 | 43–21 | 67.2% | [55.0, 77.4] |
| 10–14 pts | 94 | 62–32 | 66.0% | [55.9, 74.7] |
| 14+ pts | 110 | 69–41 | 62.7% | [53.4, 71.2] |
| Total | 347 | 223–124 | 64.3% | [59.1, 69.1] |
BBMI vs Vegas
BBMI MAE
13.74 points
Vegas MAE
11.84 points
✓ Tighter predictor
Mean absolute error in predicting the home cover margin. Lower is a better predictor; Vegas's lower MAE means the market is the tighter predictor on this product.
n = 794 graded games