MLB First 5 Innings — Spread
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ≥ 1.75 runs. Walk-forward 2025 backstop methodology reference (60.9% / n=87) carries the headline while live picks accrue toward the 200-pick milestone; the live filtered record is shown on the detail page.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filtered live picks | 114 | 61–53 | 53.5% | [44.4, 62.4] |
| Total | 114 | 61–53 | 53.5% | [44.4, 62.4] |
BBMI vs Vegas
Per-pick BBMI line and Vegas line data is exposed in the daily picks bundle but not the build-time aggregate; the full F5 vs-Vegas comparison will absorb in a follow-up data-layer pass. The composer headline above remains the canonical comparison surface in the meantime.