MLB First 5 Innings — Spread
Methodology
Picks qualify at AWAY × edge ≥ 1.50 runs. W35 mechanism canonical at edge ≥ 1.50 on the AWAY side. Walk-forward 2025 backstop methodology reference (60.9% / n=87) carries the headline while live picks accrue toward MILESTONE (currently 15/200).
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAY × edge ≥ 1.50 (live) | 19 | 10–9 | 52.6% | [31.7, 72.7] |
| Total | 19 | 10–9 | 52.6% | [31.7, 72.7] |
BBMI vs Vegas
Per-pick BBMI line and Vegas line data is exposed in the daily picks bundle but not the build-time aggregate; the full F5 vs-Vegas comparison will absorb in a follow-up data-layer pass. The composer headline above remains the canonical comparison surface in the meantime.