DATA-DRIVEN SPORTS INSIGHTS

Model the Game. Find the Edge.

Independent predictive models for baseball, basketball, and football. Every forecast is locked before the game, graded afterward, and kept on the record.

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Data-driven models

Thousands of simulations power our probabilistic projections.

Verified performance

Every pick is graded in public. Nothing is hidden.

Market awareness

We compare our numbers to the market to find real edges.

Research first

Continuous testing and validation keep our models sharp.

Historical live premium record · All Sports+12.0% ROI60.5% win rate4,243 total picksView record & methodology →

MethodologyHow the NCAAB model works

Each team’s rating combines its external rating with box-score factors, strength of schedule and recent form, weighted separately for November-December and January on, plus a team-specific home-court adjustment.

What it reads

Tempo-free adjusted efficiency (points per 100 possessions, both ends)
Shooting, rebounding, turnover and free-throw rate differentials
Schedule quality, valued by the rank of the opponent
Recent form, and a cap on how far a team can move in a day
Venue effects measured per team from its own results, not one national average
Totals: both teams’ KenPom offense, defense and tempo, with home court, recent form and neutral-site adjustments.

What it produces

A composite strength score across all Division I
Projected spread and projected total
Win probability from the margin distribution
Tournament odds from bracket simulations in March

What we publish

Spread against the market, the primary product
Over/under
Rankings and bracket projections

Not claimed

The signal is in the architecture, not in the weights: audit testing found the weight surface essentially flat, so re-tuning the inputs buys almost nothing. The edge concentrates in games where the model most disagrees with the market.

See the NCAAB record →