🏆 WIAA State Tournament Model

State Tournament Probabilities

BBMI's bracket simulation model — probability of each team advancing to Sectionals, qualifying for State, and winning the championship by division.

🗂️ View Full State Brackets →🏫 Browse Team Pages →

Full bracket probabilities by region are on the State Brackets page · Each team's complete tournament odds are on their individual team page

Showing: State Champion Probability
Top 10 teams per division, ranked by BBMI simulation model
Division 1
71 teams
🥇
Wisconsin Lutheran
Region 4 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
63.3%
2
De Pere
Region 2 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #2
13.5%
3
Appleton North
Region 1 · WIAA #2 · BBMI #3
7.8%
4
Kaukauna
Region 1 · WIAA #4 · BBMI #4
6.3%
5
Madison Memorial
Region 3 · WIAA #1 · BBMI #6
4.3%
6
Verona
Region 3 · WIAA #3 · BBMI #8
3.3%
7
Brookfield East
Region 2 · WIAA #3 · BBMI #11
1.4%
8
Racine Case
Region 4 · WIAA #3 · BBMI #21
0.1%
9
Appleton East
Region 1 · WIAA #18 · BBMI #70
<0.1%
10
Appleton West
Region 1 · WIAA #14 · BBMI #63
<0.1%
Division 2
89 teams
🥇
Slinger
Region 2B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #1
46.5%
2
Waterford
Region 4B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #3
14.3%
3
Whitefish Bay
Region 4A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #4
13.2%
4
McFarland
Region 3B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #7
9.0%
5
New Berlin West
Region 3A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #6
8.8%
6
West Salem
Region 1B · WIAA #4 · BBMI #10
5.3%
7
Notre Dame
Region 2A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #12
2.3%
8
Menomonie
Region 1A · WIAA #3 · BBMI #24
0.5%
9
Antigo
Region 1A · WIAA #10 · BBMI #86
<0.1%
10
Lakeland
Region 1A · WIAA #8 · BBMI #72
<0.1%
Division 3
99 teams
🥇
Lake Mills
Region 3B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
49.5%
2
Seymour
Region 2A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #3
22.7%
3
Oostburg
Region 4A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #4
19.3%
4
Xavier
Region 2B · WIAA #3 · BBMI #7
3.6%
5
Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau
Region 1B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #14
2.8%
6
Racine St. Catherine's
Region 4B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #10
1.9%
7
Saint Croix Central
Region 1A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #33
0.2%
8
Lancaster
Region 3A · WIAA #4 · BBMI #37
<0.1%
9
Amery
Region 1A · WIAA #7 · BBMI #51
<0.1%
10
Ashland
Region 1A · WIAA #8 · BBMI #62
<0.1%
Division 4
98 teams
🥇
Marathon
Region 2A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
29.9%
2
Milwaukee Juneau
Region 4B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #2
26.6%
3
Lomira
Region 3B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #6
19.4%
4
Regis
Region 1B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #9
10.8%
5
Bonduel
Region 2B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #7
10.1%
6
Howards Grove
Region 4A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #11
2.4%
7
Clear Lake
Region 1A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #22
0.6%
8
Cambridge
Region 3A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #24
0.2%
9
Boyceville
Region 1A · WIAA #11 · BBMI #73
<0.1%
10
Cameron
Region 1A · WIAA #10 · BBMI #46
<0.1%
Division 5
126 teams
🥇
Prentice
Region 1B · WIAA #3 · BBMI #2
29.3%
2
Tigerton
Region 2A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #1
22.9%
3
Reedsville
Region 2B · WIAA #1 · BBMI #4
19.5%
4
Barneveld
Region 4A · WIAA #2 · BBMI #8
8.7%
5
Southwestern
Region 3B · WIAA #3 · BBMI #11
8.7%
6
Sheboygan Lutheran
Region 4B · WIAA #2 · BBMI #14
5.4%
7
Turtle Lake
Region 1A · WIAA #1 · BBMI #16
3.7%
8
Assumption
Region 3A · WIAA #4 · BBMI #23
1.8%
9
Bayfield
Region 1A · WIAA #9 · BBMI #68
<0.1%
10
Birchwood
Region 1A · WIAA #10 · BBMI #89
<0.1%

Probabilities generated by BBMI bracket simulation using team efficiency ratings and seeding. Updated daily.

Full bracket probabilities by region →Individual team tournament odds →