WIAA Basketball · Prediction Accuracy
WIAA Prediction Accuracy
5,996 completed games tracked this season.
OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY
81.0%
Win Prediction %
5,996 games
4,859
Correct Picks
outright winner predicted
1,137
Incorrect Picks
actual winner differed
How impressive is 81%? For context, Vegas — with access to enormous amounts of data and betting market signals — correctly predicts NCAA outright winners only 64.8% of the time across 1,906 completed games. BBMI's WIAA prediction accuracy runs more than 16 percentage points ahead of that benchmark — a meaningful gap that reflects how well the model has learned to read WIAA matchups. See the BBMI vs Vegas page for the full NCAA comparison.
ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE BAND
| Confidence Band | Games | Correct | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 628 | 344 | 54.8% |
| 60–70% | 833 | 533 | 64.0% |
| 70–80% | 792 | 588 | 74.2% |
| 80–90% | 901 | 743 | 82.5% |
| 90–100% | 2,842 | 2,651 | 93.3% |
Confidence band = the favored team's BBMI win probability. A well-calibrated model should show higher accuracy in higher bands.
ACCURACY BY DIVISION
| Division | Games | Correct | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Division 1 | 953 | 759 | 79.6% |
| Division 2 | 1,117 | 903 | 80.8% |
| Division 3 | 1,228 | 990 | 80.6% |
| Division 4 | 1,175 | 964 | 82.0% |
| Division 5 | 1,523 | 1,243 | 81.6% |
Only games where BBMI generated a model line are included. Divisions with fewer games may show more variance.