WIAA Prediction Accuracy

How often does BBMI correctly predict the winner of WIAA games? Across 5,971 completed games this season where a model line was generated. Click any column header to learn what it means.

OVERALL PREDICTION ACCURACY

81.3%

Win Prediction %

5,971 games

4,855

Correct Picks

outright winner predicted

1,116

Incorrect Picks

actual winner differed

🏆 How impressive is 81%? For context, Vegas — with access to enormous amounts of data and betting market signals — correctly predicts NCAA outright winners only 65.0% of the time across 1,809 completed games. BBMI's WIAA prediction accuracy runs more than 16 percentage points ahead of that benchmark — a meaningful gap that reflects how well the model has learned to read WIAA matchups. See the BBMI vs Vegas page for the full NCAA comparison.

ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE BAND

Confidence Band	Games	Correct	Win %
50–60%	588	333	56.6%
60–70%	820	526	64.1%
70–80%	775	566	73.0%
80–90%	834	680	81.5%
90–100%	2,954	2,750	93.1%

Confidence band = the favored team's BBMI win probability. A well-calibrated model should show higher accuracy in higher bands.

ACCURACY BY DIVISION

Division	Games	Correct	Win %
Division 1	947	755	79.7%
Division 2	1,114	912	81.9%
Division 3	1,225	993	81.1%
Division 4	1,170	961	82.1%
Division 5	1,515	1,234	81.5%

Only games where BBMI generated a model line are included. Divisions with fewer games may show more variance.

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