Who finishes on top? Statistical title probabilities, the Triple Crown, and BBMI’s view of the rookie and relief races.
September 16 snapshot · Results through 2026-09-15 · 500 simulated seasons · 160 games remaining
Batting title
Lead or share the league batting title; qualification and hitless-at-bat exception applied.
0.0% means no selections or wins observed in 500 trials. Shared leads count for each player.
American League
352 players · Shared lead in 0.0% of trials
Player
Lead / share
Median AVG
10th–90th
502 PA
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astros
56.8%
.307
.301–.314
100.0%
Chandler SimpsonTampa Bay Rays
39.8%
.306
.299–.312
100.0%
Yandy DíazTampa Bay Rays
3.4%
.296
.290–.303
100.0%
Chase DeLauterCleveland Guardians
0.0%
.287
.280–.294
100.0%
Riley GreeneDetroit Tigers
0.0%
.280
.274–.287
100.0%
Ceddanne RafaelaBoston Red Sox
0.0%
.279
.273–.285
100.0%
Bobby Witt Jr.Kansas City Royals
0.0%
.277
.270–.283
100.0%
Randy ArozarenaSeattle Mariners
0.0%
.276
.270–.282
100.0%
Junior CamineroTampa Bay Rays
0.0%
.276
.271–.283
100.0%
Jonathan ArandaTampa Bay Rays
0.0%
.276
.270–.283
100.0%
National League
348 players · Shared lead in 0.0% of trials
Player
Lead / share
Median AVG
10th–90th
502 PA
Luis ArraezPhiladelphia Phillies
78.8%
.311
.305–.318
100.0%
Nick GonzalesPittsburgh Pirates
11.8%
.306
.306–.306
100.0%
Gabriel MorenoArizona Diamondbacks
6.8%
.301
.293–.308
100.0%
Otto LopezMiami Marlins
1.2%
.300
.294–.306
100.0%
TJ RumfieldColorado Rockies
0.8%
.297
.291–.304
100.0%
Ty FranceSan Diego Padres
0.6%
.291
.283–.300
15.0%
Jake McCarthyColorado Rockies
0.0%
.297
.297–.297
100.0%
Freddie FreemanLos Angeles Dodgers
0.0%
.295
.288–.301
100.0%
Michael Harris IIAtlanta Braves
0.0%
.287
.282–.294
100.0%
Jackson ChourioMilwaukee Brewers
0.0%
.287
.280–.295
100.0%
How to read these probabilities
500 trials give 0.2 percentage-point resolution. Zero observed wins is not proof of impossibility. Tied leaders each receive credit, so probabilities can sum above 100%. Fixed rosters and playing-time assumptions; no future trade or injury simulation. Model value omits positional adjustments, full baserunning value and catcher blocking/throwing; it is not WAR or a voting model.
Statistical titles. Completed-game totals through September 15, including available scoring corrections, plus the saved model's remaining-season increments. League totals stay with the league where earned. Batting-title comparisons use exact fractions, a 502-PA threshold, and the hitless-at-bat exception. The table displays projected H/AB; “502 PA” shows the chance of reaching the standard threshold. Triple Crown probabilities count the joint event within each season, including shared leads.
ROY and relief. These are probabilities of leading BBMI’s performance score, not winning a ballot. Batting value uses the published MVP model’s linear weights and projected fielding runs. Pitching value measures runs prevented against the model’s league-average baseline. MLB’s 2026 rookie pool supplies eligibility; there is no 400-PA or 100-IP cutoff for rookies. Relief eligibility requires zero starts to date and 30 projected innings. These award boards group full-season player value by current league.
BBMI All-MLB. Rank by median BBMI runs, using the primary position by games appeared through September 15 (outfield positions grouped). Minimum 400 projected PA; starters need 100 projected IP and at least half their appearances as starts. Relievers need 30 projected IP and zero starts to date. Two-way batting and pitching can earn separate selections. Selection percentages use each season's same slot rules; exact value ties use player ID. This is BBMI’s model team, not a prediction of official selections.