NCAA Basketball · Product
NCAA Basketball — Total (O/U)
Premium · edge ≥ 4 pts · 62.2% O/U win rate · n=1,279 · live
live
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ≥ 4 pts. Combined 2024–25 walk-forward + 2025–26 live track (history table includes both seasons). Per Q1.5-revisit, headline reports the live 2025–26 window once n_live cleared MILESTONE with significance > 2·SE_live.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4–6 pts | 516 | 312–204 | 60.5% | [56.2, 64.6] |
| 6–8 pts | 334 | 208–126 | 62.3% | [57.0, 67.3] |
| 8–10 pts | 207 | 126–81 | 60.9% | [54.1, 67.3] |
| 10+ pts | 222 | 149–73 | 67.1% | [60.7, 73.0] |
| Total | 1,279 | 795–484 | 62.2% | [59.5, 64.8] |
BBMI vs Vegas
BBMI MAE
13.20 points
✓ Tighter predictor
Vegas MAE
13.47 points
Mean absolute error in predicting the actual combined total. Lower is a better predictor; BBMI beats Vegas on total accuracy.
n = 2,519 graded games