NCAA Basketball · Product
NCAA Basketball — Spread
Premium · edge ≥ 6 pts · 65.1% ATS win rate · n=395 · live
live
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ≥ 6 pts. Single-window 2025–26 season prospective picks (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026). No walk-forward backstop in the data file — every figure here is the realized live track record.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6–7 pts | 143 | 88–55 | 61.5% | [53.4, 69.1] |
| 7–8 pts | 113 | 74–39 | 65.5% | [56.3, 73.6] |
| 8–10 pts | 91 | 56–35 | 61.5% | [51.3, 70.9] |
| 10+ pts | 48 | 39–9 | 81.3% | [68.1, 89.8] |
| Total | 395 | 257–138 | 65.1% | [60.2, 69.6] |
BBMI vs Vegas
BBMI MAE
8.80 points
✓ Tighter predictor
Vegas MAE
8.83 points
Mean absolute error in predicting the home cover margin. Lower is a better predictor; BBMI's lower MAE means it tracks closer to reality than the market does.
n = 2,975 graded games