DATA-DRIVEN SPORTS INSIGHTS

Model the Game. Find the Edge.

Independent predictive models for baseball, basketball, and football. Every forecast is locked before the game, graded afterward, and kept on the record.

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Data-driven models

Thousands of simulations power our probabilistic projections.

Verified performance

Every pick is graded in public. Nothing is hidden.

Market awareness

We compare our numbers to the market to find real edges.

Research first

Continuous testing and validation keep our models sharp.

MethodologyHow the NCAA Baseball model works

Two team ratings, one for scoring and one for preventing runs, re-anchored so the league average always tracks the scoring environment actually being played, then pushed through a Poisson scoring distribution.

What it reads

Team offensive rates (on-base, slugging, weighted on-base, baserunning, schedule)
Team run prevention, led by fielding-independent pitching and bullpen quality
The listed starter, shrunk toward his staff when the sample is thin
Park factors, home field, conference tier
Series position, day of week, bullpen fatigue

What it produces

Projected runs for each side
Game total, margin and win probability
Tournament odds during regionals and the College World Series

What we publish

Total under, the primary product
Spread, co-primary
Moneyline, all picks and underdogs

Not claimed

This is structurally an under-finder. Over picks tested as an anti-signal and are not published as picks. Individual pitcher adjustment is layered on top of the team rating and cannot override it.

See the NCAA baseball record →