Research series · 2 installments
Postseason Simulations.
Potential October matchups run through BBMI's per-plate-appearance engine — where a series would actually turn, one pairing at a time.
01MLB · Postseason Simulation
Yankees vs. Rays: The Model Likes the Team in Second Place
Tampa Bay leads the American League East and is likely to host. BBMI has the clubs meeting in 41% of simulated postseasons, and in the five-game series it considers likeliest, New York wins 57.1% of the time — without Aaron Judge — because the Rays’ third and fourth starters rate near the bottom of the league.
Meet 41% · Yankees 57.1% · 4.12 games · Rays host in 73%02MLB · Postseason SimulationDodgers vs. Brewers: Where an October Series Would Turn
Milwaukee and Los Angeles have the National League's two best records, and BBMI has them meeting in 30.7% of simulated postseasons. If they do, the Dodgers win about 62% of the time — but the edge comes from the middle of the rotation, not the Game 1 aces.
Meet 30.7% · Dodgers 62% · 5.78 games · Milwaukee's opening is Game 5