Research series · 1 installment

2026 NFL Award Races.

MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, and Offensive Rookie of the Year — from a model trained on a decade of actual voting, run across 20,000 simulated seasons before a single camp opened.

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01NFL · Season Preview

The 2026 NFL Season, Simulated 20,000 Times: Standings, Super Bowl Odds, and Award Races

Way-too-early predictions, on the record before a single camp opens: projected standings and Super Bowl odds from 20,000 season simulations built on de-vig market priors and a drive-level Markov engine, award races from a model trained on a decade of actual voting — and exactly how all of it works, including what it can't see.

Rams 15.8% SB · Allen 23% MVP · Garrett three-peat bid · 20,000 simsJul 19 · 10 min