Research series · 1 installment

Can You Beat Vegas Long-Term?.

A running scoreboard of every BBMI model against the market: winner accuracy, Brier and MAE head to head, then the logged pick records at real prices. Live picks first; walk-forward results labeled as walk-forward. Same tables, same rules, every installment.

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01Model Performance · Series

Can You Beat Vegas Long-Term? The Scoreboard Through September 7

Since December 29 we have posted a model line on every game we cover, logged every pick before tipoff or first pitch, and graded it in public. Installment 1 of a running series. The hypothesis is not that a model beats Vegas on every game; it is that a cohort of games, defined in advance, can be profitable long-term. One live cohort clears the vig under a rule that never moved, a second is positive under a rule finalized in-season, one wins 63% and has not made a dollar, and two more are positive only in walk-forward replays a live season has not yet confirmed.

NCAAB premium +24.2% (257–138) · College baseball underdog ML +25.0% · MLB run line 62.9% at −1.4% · NCAAF 2026 7–1Sep 8 · 23 min