NCAA Baseball — Total (O/U)
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ≥ 4 runs. Two cuts are distinguished by the Q1.9 amendment (11th drift pattern). The emission gate is the product STREAM — the pipeline emits every O/U pick at edge ≥ 1.5 (OVER_MIN_EDGE=1.5 Phase 2 validated; OU_OVER_MIN=OU_UNDER_MIN=1.5 on the picks page; no upper cap, OU_MAX_EDGE=7 in config is a historical-display constant only). The Premium TIER is the redactor's predicate — `_is_ncaab_baseball_ou_premium` at `premium_redact.py:423` locks picks at |bbmiTotal − vegasTotal| ≥ 4. Free users receive the [1.5, 4) band; the [4, ∞) band is paywalled. The headline reports the Premium tier; the secondary line ("All picks") reports the full emission stream for transparency. The per-band table below shows every band — the [1.5, 4) bands are explicitly the free territory, the [4, ∞) bands are the paywalled tier. All 2026 season, single-window live.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5 runs | 544 | 287–257 | 52.8% | [48.6, 56.9] |
| 2.5–3.5 runs | 283 | 150–133 | 53.0% | [47.2, 58.7] |
| 3.5–4.5 runs | 136 | 85–51 | 62.5% | [54.1, 70.2] |
| 4.5–5.5 runs | 68 | 40–28 | 58.8% | [47.0, 69.7] |
| 5.5–7 runs | 15 | 9–6 | 60.0% | [35.7, 80.2] |
| 7+ runs | 6 | 4–2 | 66.7% | [30.0, 90.3] |
| Total | 1,052 | 575–477 | 54.7% | [51.6, 57.6] |
BBMI vs Vegas
Mean absolute error in predicting the actual combined total. Lower is a better predictor; Vegas remains the tighter total predictor.
n = 1,093 graded games