NCAA Baseball · Product
NCAA Baseball — Spread
Premium · edge ∈ [2, 6] runs · 57.3% ATS win rate · n=1,085 · live
live
Methodology
Picks qualify at edge ∈ [2, 6] runs. Production gate matches the picks page (ATS_REC_MIN=2.0, ATS_REC_MAX=6.0; cap raised 5.0 → 6.0 in Phase 0f Commit A after 5–6 band re-verification). All 2026 season, single-window live.
All figures computed from logged pick data at build · updated with each deploy.
Per-band breakdown
Each band shows sample size, record, win rate, and the 95% Wilson confidence interval. Bands inside the production gate are shown — wider edges have higher conviction but smaller samples.
| Edge band | n | W–L | Win % | 95% Wilson CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–3 runs | 420 | 230–190 | 54.8% | [50.0, 59.5] |
| 3–4 runs | 396 | 227–169 | 57.3% | [52.4, 62.1] |
| 4–5 runs | 200 | 121–79 | 60.5% | [53.6, 67.0] |
| 5–6 runs | 69 | 44–25 | 63.8% | [52.0, 74.1] |
| Total | 1,085 | 622–463 | 57.3% | [54.4, 60.2] |
BBMI vs Vegas
BBMI MAE
4.61 runs
Vegas MAE
4.44 runs
✓ Tighter predictor
Mean absolute error in predicting the home cover margin. Lower is a better predictor; Vegas's lower MAE means the market is the tighter predictor on this product.
n = 2,186 graded games