MLB · First 5 Innings (F5)
First 5 Innings.
F5 markets settle on the score through five innings — a cleaner read on the starting pitchers, with the bullpen taken out of the equation. The model prices the F5 run line and F5 total the same way it prices the full game.
5 games0 F5 picksstarter-focused
Why F5First-5 isolates the starting pitchers — no bullpen variance, no late-game position-player swings. The model’s pitcher rate inputs (FIP, K/9) carry more signal here, so F5 is often where the largest, most defensible edges sit.
Model status: engine redeployed May 2026. F5 picks are logged and graded as their own product on Model Performance.
| Time (CT) | Matchup | Score | Vegas Spread (F5) | BBMI margin | Edge | Pick | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:15 PM |  Rays @ BravesN. Martinez vs M. Pérez | — | -0.5 | — | — | No pick yet — lineups not set | — |
| 5:06 PM |  Astros @ PhilliesC. Javier vs Z. Wheeler | — | -0.5 | — | — | No pick yet — lineups not set | — |
| 8:10 PM |  Rangers @ MarinersJ. deGrom vs L. Gilbert | — | -0.5 | — | — | No pick yet — lineups not set | — |
| 11:05 PM |  Rockies @ YankeesR. Feltner vs M. Fried | — | -1.3 | — | — | No pick yet — lineups not set | — |
| 11:41 PM |  Pirates @ SoxJ. Jones vs H. Smith | — | +0.5 | — | — | No pick yet — lineups not set | — |
How F5 differs from the full-game pick
The same per-plate-appearance simulation runs, but settled at the end of the fifth inning — so only the projected starters’ innings count. Bullpens, pinch-hitters, and late-game leverage are excluded. That makes F5 a purer test of the pitching matchup and removes a major source of variance.
F5 picks are logged and graded on the Model Performance page under their own product, separate from full-game results.