MLB · All-Star Game · Model Prediction

2026 All-Star Game.

American League vs. National League — Tuesday, July 14, 8:00 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. BBMI’s projection from 250,000 simulations of the announced starting lineups and pitching plans. Nine innings only: the All-Star Game settles a tie with a swing-off, so ties are shown separately rather than played out.

American League
AL
36.2%
proj. 4.11 runs
VStie 9.5%
National League · home
NL
54.3%
proj. 4.77 runs
AL win 36.2%Tie 9.5%NL win 54.3%

Full game

Final after 9 innings (ties stand)

NL win / AL win / tie54.3% / 36.2% / 9.5%
Projected score (NL – AL)4.774.11
Margin NL − AL (mean ± sd)+0.66 ± 4.25
Total runs (mean ± sd)8.88 ± 4.46
Full-game totalOver
6.567.4%
7.557.7%
8.548.6%
9.539.8%
10.532.2%

First 5 innings

Lead after 5 complete innings

NL lead / AL lead / tie52.8% / 32.8% / 14.4%
Projected runs (NL – AL)2.942.18
Margin NL − AL (mean ± sd)+0.76 ± 3.21
Total runs (mean ± sd)5.12 ± 3.21
First-5 totalOver
3.565.2%
4.552.2%
5.540.0%
6.529.5%
7.521.0%
Read thisCalibrated to regular-season run environments — it does not encode All-Star-specific effects (max-effort one-inning velocity, hitter unfamiliarity), so the projected total reads regular-season-like and may run above a typical All-Star Game.
How this prediction is built

250,000 common-random-number simulations of the game using BBMI’s production MLB engine with point-in-time player ratings through July 13, 2026, and Citizens Bank Park park factors. 9 innings only — the All-Star Game goes to a swing-off, not extra innings, so ties stand and are reported separately.

Rosters: Announced starting lineups; all pitchers capped at ~1 inning (every arm treated as a one-inning reliever). Bench substitutions are not modeled — the announced starting nine bat the full game, so the First-5 split reflects the announced starters exactly.

Not a betting pick. This is a model projection of an exhibition game. Calibrated to regular-season run environments — it does not encode All-Star-specific effects (max-effort one-inning velocity, hitter unfamiliarity), so the projected total reads regular-season-like and may run above a typical All-Star Game.

Model prediction · 250,000 simulations · see the MLB model accuracy page for graded results.