| Rank | Player | Team | Pos | Win chance | Team record | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Rush yds | Rush TD | Rec yds | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darian Mensah | Miami (FL) | QB | 11.0% | 11.0–1.0 | 3,324 | 30.6 | 4.2 | 218 | 3.4 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | CJ Carr | Notre Dame | QB | 5.5% | 11.0–1.0 | 2,834 | 28.0 | 4.7 | 175 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Julian Sayin | Ohio State | QB | 5.0% | 9.9–2.1 | 3,405 | 29.8 | 5.7 | 186 | 3.3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Gunner Stockton | Georgia | QB | 4.9% | 11.1–0.9 | 2,928 | 27.3 | 5.5 | 364 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | Conner Weigman | Houston | QB | 3.9% | 9.0–3.0 | 2,827 | 25.7 | 4.9 | 466 | 9.1 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Devon Dampier | Utah | QB | 3.7% | 10.2–1.8 | 2,727 | 24.1 | 6.1 | 548 | 7.2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Josh Hoover | Indiana | QB | 3.6% | 10.8–1.2 | 2,667 | 27.0 | 3.2 | 199 | 2.2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Kevin Jennings | SMU | QB | 3.1% | 9.2–2.8 | 3,598 | 29.9 | 10.9 | 316 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Gio Lopez | Wake Forest | QB | 2.5% | 9.1–2.9 | 2,940 | 22.0 | 4.8 | 476 | 8.2 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 10 | Noah Fifita | Arizona | QB | 2.3% | 8.8–3.2 | 3,337 | 27.0 | 8.1 | 348 | 4.7 | 0 | 0.0 |
NCAAF · BBMI projections
NCAAF Award Projections
Heisman Trophy, Davey O'Brien, Doak Walker, Biletnikoff and AP Coach of the Year.
Through week 6 · 200 simulated seasons · 431 remaining games simulated
Heisman Trophy
Most outstanding player (quarterbacks, running backs and receivers)
Projected regular season: the season so far plus the simulated remaining games (averages).
Percentages are not rescaled to the displayed subset.
How to read the numbers
Win chance: how often the candidate wins the award across the simulated seasons. Each simulated season adds the remaining games, simulated one by one, to the statistics so far, and the award model picks among that season's candidates.
Projected season: the average over the simulated seasons of the regular-season totals, through conference championship weekend.
Through week 6: every game played through week 6 counts; later games are simulated.