NCAA Football ยท Model vs Market
BBMI vs Vegas: Winner Accuracy
When BBMI gives a team >50% win probability, how often does that team win outright? Head-to-head vs Vegas across 794 completed games.
The Real Edge: Against the Spread (ATS)
BBMI is not designed to predict outright winners โ it's designed to find games where Vegas has the line wrong. The honest track record is 57.4% ATS on 707 picks vs the 52.4% breakeven.
๐ Note: Outright winner accuracy measures something different from ATS performance. Vegas has a structural advantage here โ it incorporates sharp money, injury reports, and line movement that public models can't access. BBMI's edge is in identifying when the Vegas line is off, not predicting who wins outright. Both BBMI and Vegas win probabilities use ฯ=14 for a fair comparison.
OVERALL OUTRIGHT WINNER ACCURACY
68.9%
BBMI Accuracy
794 games
73.4%
Vegas Accuracy
794 games
-4.5%
BBMI vs Vegas
Vegas slightly better
ACCURACY BY CONFIDENCE BAND
| Confidence | BBMI Games | BBMI Correct | Vegas Games | Vegas Correct | BBMI Diff |
|---|
| 50โ60% | 202 | 55.9% | 231 | 57.6% | -1.6% |
| 60โ70% | 135 | 60.0% | 139 | 66.2% | -6.2% |
| 70โ80% | 163 | 62.6% | 157 | 72.6% | -10.0% |
| 80โ90% | 147 | 78.2% | 138 | 87.7% | -9.4% |
Confidence band = favored team's win probability. BBMI and Vegas bands calculated independently so game counts may differ. Vegas win probability derived from point spread (ฯ=14).
WHEN BBMI AND VEGAS DISAGREE
Out of 794 games, BBMI and Vegas picked the same team 72.0% of the time. In the remaining 222 games where they disagreed:
93
BBMI Was Right
41.9% of disagreements
129
Vegas Was Right
58.1% of disagreements
Vegas clearly better
Verdict
when models split
When BBMI and Vegas diverge on the outright winner, that often corresponds to a high-edge spread pick. Check Weekly Picks for current high-edge games.