NCAA Basketball · Bracket Results

Bracket Prediction Validation

Pre-tournament predictions (March 15) vs actual tournament results.
How well did the BBMI model forecast the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

BBMI Model Bracket (Pre-Tournament Picks)

Auto-generated bracket: at every matchup the model picks the team with the higher BBMI score. Highlight and cross-out rules match the Bracket Challenge format.

Score

1465 pts

Correct

52/67

Accuracy

77.6%

Max Possible

1465 pts

East Region

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite 8

Region Winner

1Duke

71✓

16Siena

65✓

8Ohio State

64✓

9TCU

66✓

5St. John's

79✓

12Northern Iowa

53✓

4Kansas

68✓

13Cal Baptist

✓

6Louisville

83✓

11South Florida

79✓

3Michigan State

92✓

14North Dakota State

67✓

7UCLA

75✓

10UCF

71✓

2UConn

82✓

15Furman

71✓

1Duke

81✓

8Ohio State

✗✓

5St. John's

67✓

4Kansas

65✓

6Louisville

69✓

3Michigan State

77✓

7UCLA

57✓

2UConn

73✓

1Duke

80✓

5St. John's

75✓

3Michigan State

63✓

2UConn

67✓

1Duke

72✓

3Michigan State

✗✓

1Duke

✗✓

South Region

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite 8

Region Winner

1Florida

114✓

16Lehigh

✗✓

8Clemson

61✓

9Iowa

67✓

5Vanderbilt

78✓

12McNeese

68✓

4Nebraska

76✓

13Troy

47✓

6North Carolina

78✓

11VCU

82✓

3Illinois

105✓

14Penn

✓

7Saint Mary's

50✓

10Texas A&M

63✓

2Houston

78✓

15Idaho

47✓

1Florida

72✓

9Iowa

73✓

5Vanderbilt

72✓

4Nebraska

74✓

11VCU

55✓

3Illinois

76✓

7Saint Mary's

✗✓

2Houston

88✓

1Florida

✗✓

4Nebraska

71✓

3Illinois

65✓

2Houston

55✓

1Florida

✗✓

3Illinois

71✓

3Illinois

✓

West Region

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite 8

Region Winner

1Arizona

92✓

16LIU

58✓

8Villanova

76✓

9Utah State

86✓

5Wisconsin

82✓

12High Point

83✓

4Arkansas

97✓

13Hawai'i

✓

6BYU

✓

11NC State

✗✓

3Gonzaga

73✓

14Kennesaw State

64✓

7Miami (FL)

80✓

10Missouri

66✓

2Purdue

104✓

15Queens

✓

1Arizona

78✓

9Utah State

66✓

5Wisconsin

✗✓

4Arkansas

94✓

11NC State

✗✓

3Gonzaga

68✓

7Miami (FL)

69✓

2Purdue

79✓

1Arizona

109✓

4Arkansas

88✓

3Gonzaga

✗✓

2Purdue

79✓

1Arizona

79✓

2Purdue

64✓

1Arizona

✓

Midwest Region

Round of 64

Round of 32

Sweet 16

Elite 8

Region Winner

1Michigan

101✓

16Howard

80✓

8Georgia

77✓

9Saint Louis

102✓

5Texas Tech

91✓

12Akron

71✓

4Alabama

90✓

13Hofstra

70✓

6Tennessee

78✓

11SMU

✗✓

3Virginia

82✓

14Wright State

73✓

7Kentucky

89✓

10Santa Clara

84✓

2Iowa State

108✓

15Tennessee State

74✓

1Michigan

95✓

9Saint Louis

72✓

5Texas Tech

65✓

4Alabama

90✓

6Tennessee

79✓

3Virginia

72✓

7Kentucky

63✓

2Iowa State

82✓

1Michigan

90✓

4Alabama

77✓

3Virginia

✗✓

2Iowa State

62✓

1Michigan

95✓

2Iowa State

✗✓

1Michigan

✓

Final Four & Championship

East vs South

1Duke

✗✓

3Illinois

62✓

Champion

1Duke

✗✓

1Michigan

69✓

West vs Midwest

1Arizona

73✓

1Michigan

91✓

Round-by-Round Summary

Round	Expected Adv	Actual Adv	Diff	Avg Pred (Adv)	Brier Score
Rd of 32	30.8	32	+1.2	65.7%	0.1341
Sweet 16	15.7	16	+0.3	45.7%	0.1173
Elite 8	7.9	8	+0.1	34.6%	0.0723
Final Four	4.0	4	+0.0	27.8%	0.0405
Championship	2.0	2	+0.0	17.7%	0.0251
Champion	1.0	1	-0.0	20.4%	0.0111

Expected Adv = sum of all predicted probabilities for that round. Brier Score: 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip. Lower is better.

Calibration: Predicted vs Actual Advance Rate

When we give a team a 30% chance, do ~30% of those teams actually advance? A well-calibrated model tracks close to the diagonal.

Predicted Range	Count	Avg Predicted	Actual Rate	Diff
0-10%	225	2.5%	1.8%	-0.7pp
10-20%	47	14.4%	6.4%	-8.0pp
20-30%	24	23.5%	12.5%	-11.0pp
30-40%	21	34.1%	23.8%	-10.3pp
40-50%	19	44.3%	57.9%	+13.6pp
50-60%	20	55.3%	75.0%	+19.7pp
60-70%	6	65.6%	100.0%	+34.4pp
70-80%	10	74.8%	100.0%	+25.2pp
80-90%	4	84.9%	100.0%	+15.1pp
90-100%	2	91.9%	100.0%	+8.1pp

Predicted ActualAll rounds combined (decided games only)

Team-by-Team: Pre-Tournament Prediction vs Result

Seed ▲	Team	Region	Status	R32	S16	E8	F4	CG	W
#1	Duke	East	Out F4	88.9%	68.3%	50.5%	37.2%	22.6%	14.5%
#1	Michigan	Midwest	Out	91.0%	70.0%	57.6%	44.5%	32.6%	20.4%
#1	Florida	South	Out S16	87.6%	58.7%	33.1%	18.9%	8.9%	3.9%
#1	Arizona	West	Out CG	92.9%	73.5%	56.5%	41.5%	27.5%	18.1%
#2	UConn	East	Out W	73.9%	42.2%	19.5%	7.3%	2.8%	1.1%
#2	Iowa State	Midwest	Out E8	79.5%	53.8%	32.6%	14.0%	7.3%	3.2%
#2	Houston	South	Out E8	75.4%	41.6%	20.1%	9.7%	4.1%	1.4%
#2	Purdue	West	Out F4	81.5%	55.0%	34.8%	15.6%	7.7%	3.7%
#3	Michigan State	East	Out E8	75.0%	47.2%	30.9%	14.4%	7.0%	3.4%
#3	Virginia	Midwest	Out S16	65.5%	36.0%	19.3%	7.3%	3.4%	1.1%
#3	Illinois	South	Out CG	81.7%	51.5%	32.7%	17.8%	8.9%	3.8%
#3	Gonzaga	West	Out S16	78.0%	56.8%	31.6%	13.0%	5.8%	2.7%
#4	Kansas	East	Out S16	74.0%	35.8%	12.9%	6.6%	2.5%	1.0%
#4	Alabama	Midwest	Out E8	58.8%	33.8%	10.1%	4.9%	2.0%	0.8%
#4	Nebraska	South	Out E8	70.5%	41.1%	23.6%	13.6%	6.4%	2.7%
#4	Arkansas	West	Out E8	78.0%	48.6%	17.6%	9.6%	4.3%	1.9%
#5	St. John's	East	Out E8	67.3%	42.4%	17.7%	10.1%	4.5%	2.2%
#5	Texas Tech	Midwest	Out S16	50.6%	23.2%	5.1%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
#5	Vanderbilt	South	Out S16	65.8%	34.9%	18.4%	10.2%	4.4%	1.8%
#5	Wisconsin	West	Out R64	59.8%	29.0%	9.1%	4.2%	1.5%	0.6%
#6	Louisville	East	Out S16	51.1%	22.4%	12.6%	4.6%	1.9%	0.7%
#6	Tennessee	Midwest	Out F4	58.8%	32.1%	16.6%	5.8%	2.6%	0.9%
#6	North Carolina	South	Out R64	49.6%	20.8%	11.5%	5.2%	1.9%	0.6%
#7	UCLA	East	Out S16	65.0%	35.7%	16.3%	5.8%	1.8%	0.7%
#7	Kentucky	Midwest	Out S16	57.0%	24.2%	11.1%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%
#7	Saint Mary's	South	Out R64	57.8%	31.1%	14.1%	6.3%	2.4%	0.9%
#7	Miami (FL)	West	Out S16	61.5%	26.2%	13.1%	4.5%	1.8%	0.7%
#8	Ohio State	East	Out R64	54.0%	16.0%	7.7%	3.8%	1.4%	0.5%
#8	Georgia	Midwest	Out R64	43.9%	10.9%	6.3%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
#8	Clemson	South	Out R64	47.7%	18.1%	7.0%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
#8	Villanova	West	Out R64	40.8%	8.2%	3.5%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%
#9	TCU	East	Out S16	46.0%	12.2%	5.1%	2.3%	0.6%	0.2%
#9	Saint Louis	Midwest	Out S16	56.1%	16.8%	10.3%	5.6%	2.8%	1.1%
#9	Iowa	South	Out F4	52.3%	20.2%	8.4%	3.7%	1.2%	0.4%
#9	Utah State	West	Out S16	59.2%	16.5%	8.2%	4.0%	1.6%	0.6%
#10	UCF	East	Out R64	35.0%	14.0%	4.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
#10	Santa Clara	Midwest	Out R64	43.0%	14.6%	5.7%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%
#10	Texas A&M	South	Out S16	42.2%	19.6%	7.2%	2.5%	0.7%	0.2%
#10	Missouri	West	Out R64	38.5%	12.3%	5.1%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%
#11	South Florida	East	Out R64	48.9%	21.2%	10.8%	3.6%	1.3%	0.5%
#11	Miami (OH)	Midwest	Out R64	18.0%	7.7%	2.9%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
#11	SMU	Midwest	Out R64	23.2%	11.0%	5.0%	1.5%	0.6%	0.3%
#11	VCU	South	Out S16	50.4%	22.4%	11.3%	5.3%	2.0%	0.7%
#11	Texas	West	Out E8	26.7%	9.5%	3.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
#11	NC State	West	Out R64	36.3%	14.6%	5.7%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%
#12	Northern Iowa	East	Out R64	32.7%	15.3%	4.2%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
#12	Akron	Midwest	Out R64	49.4%	22.3%	4.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.1%
#12	McNeese	South	Out R64	34.2%	12.8%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%	0.2%
#12	High Point	West	Out S16	40.2%	15.4%	3.7%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
#13	Hofstra	Midwest	Out R64	41.2%	20.6%	5.0%	1.9%	0.7%	0.1%
#13	Troy	South	Out R64	29.5%	11.3%	4.0%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%
#14	North Dakota State	East	Out R64	25.0%	9.1%	3.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
#14	Wright State	Midwest	Out R64	34.5%	13.3%	5.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
#14	Kennesaw State	West	Out R64	22.0%	9.4%	2.5%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
#15	Furman	East	Out R64	26.1%	8.1%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
#15	Tennessee State	Midwest	Out R64	20.5%	7.4%	2.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
#15	Idaho	South	Out R64	24.6%	7.7%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%
#16	Siena	East	Out R64	11.1%	3.5%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
#16	UMBC	Midwest	Out R64	3.8%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
#16	Howard	Midwest	Out R64	5.2%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
#16	Prairie View A&M	South	Out R64	5.7%	1.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#16	Lehigh	South	Out R64	6.7%	1.7%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
#16	L LIU	West	Out R64	7.1%	1.8%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Correctly predicted advance Upset (advanced, predicted <50%) Missed (eliminated, predicted >50%)