Team Pages/Western Athletic/Tarleton State
Tarleton State logo
WESTERN ATHLETIC • 2026 SEASON

Tarleton State

Record 38-21vs line 2–3 ATSLast L 5–9 vs UC Santa BarbaraPostseason Regional
#116
BBMI rank
+0.39
Rating
+1.0
Run margin
#55
RPI

Next game

Game Picks →
Last updated: (data published)
Sacramento State logo
Sacramento State
#108 • +0.47 • Kurt Marton
SAT MAY 23 • 9:00 PM CT • GAME 2 OF THE SERIES
not projected
projected runs
Tarleton State
#116 • +0.39 • home • Cort Lowry
Tarleton State logo
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Model run line
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Market run line
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Edge
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Win probability

Schedule & projections

projected runs and win prob from the board
Last updated: (data published)
DATEOPPONENTRESULTOPP RKPROJWIN %WIN PROB
Feb 16
Arkansas logovs Arkansas
L 1–3#146.1–6.348%
Feb 27
Creighton logovs Creighton
W 8–7#855.8–5.654%
Feb 28
Texas State logovs Texas State
L 3–9#926.1–5.755%
Mar 1
Creighton logoat Creighton
L 4–5#855.3–6.141%
Mar 3
Baylor logovs Baylor
W 6–5#757.1–6.854%
Mar 17
Texas logoat Texas
W 6–1#24.9–6.433%
Mar 31
Baylor logoat Baylor
W 5–1#755.9–6.741%
Apr 7
UTSA logovs UTSA
L 2–6#437.0–7.149%
Apr 14
TCU logoat TCU
L 5–12#477.4–8.638%
Apr 21
Texas Tech logoat Texas Tech
L 3–13#1128.1–9.239%
Apr 28
Texas A&M logoat Texas A&M
L 7–9#106.2–7.735%
May 21
Sacramento State logovs Sacramento State
W 9–0#1086.9–6.456%
May 22
California Baptist logovs California Baptist
W 5–3#806.2–6.646%
May 23
Sacramento State logoat Sacramento State
W 21–11#1086.2–6.646%
May 23
Sacramento State logovs Sacramento State
—#108
May 29
UC Santa Barbara logovs UC Santa Barbara
W 11–5#304.2–5.237%
May 30
Texas logovs Texas
L 2–16#24.9–5.741%
May 31
UC Santa Barbara logovs UC Santa Barbara
L 5–9#304.6–5.342%

Ranking over time

weekly · place of 308
#100#110#120#130
#117
Mar 24Mar 31Apr 7Apr 14Apr 21Apr 28May 5May 12May 19May 26Jun 2Jun 9Jun 16

13 weekly snapshots, frozen on Tuesdays while the sport is playing. The series stops where the season did and resumes when the sport does.

Road to Omaha

Pulse →
Last updated:
3
Regional seed
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National seed
Regional
Austin Regional
The bracket is resolved, so this is the result rather than a probability.

Regular-season wins

not published
Last updated: (data published)
This sport has no season simulation, so there is no distribution of win totals to draw.

Profile

Runs per game7.2#80
Runs allowed per game6.2#126
Starter FIP6.20#225
Team OPS.846#93
Team wOBA.391#47
Run margin+1.0#89
Strength of schedule#92
The mock asks for a weekend rotation ERA; this feed publishes starter FIP, which is a different statistic and is shown under its own name. Every other row is the mock’s, and this is the only one of the seven sports where that is true.

BBMI picks on Tarleton State

2026 • ATS
1–1
Picks on Tarleton State
1–2
Picks against
-1.2u
Net, flat 1u
ON took this team, AGAINST took its opponent. A game counts only inside the published edge band, and it is graded against the market line, which is the same rule the model-performance page uses. 5 graded picks.
Probabilities may not add to 100%. All results are model projections, not guarantees.