# BBMI MLB awards - September 16, 2026

Actuals through September 15; 500 simulated remaining seasons.

500 trials give 0.2 percentage-point resolution. Zero observed wins is not proof of impossibility. Tied leaders each receive credit, so probabilities can sum above 100%. Fixed rosters and playing-time assumptions; no future trade or injury simulation. Model value omits positional adjustments, full baserunning value and catcher blocking/throwing; it is not WAR or a voting model.

## Batting title

Lead or share the league batting title; qualification and hitless-at-bat exception applied.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | 56.8% | 0.307 | 0.301 - 0.314 |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | 39.8% | 0.306 | 0.299 - 0.312 |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | 3.4% | 0.296 | 0.290 - 0.303 |
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | 0.0% | 0.287 | 0.280 - 0.294 |
| Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | 0.280 | 0.274 - 0.287 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | 0.279 | 0.273 - 0.285 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.277 | 0.270 - 0.283 |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.276 | 0.270 - 0.282 |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 0.276 | 0.271 - 0.283 |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 0.276 | 0.270 - 0.283 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | 78.8% | 0.311 | 0.305 - 0.318 |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | 11.8% | 0.306 | 0.306 - 0.306 |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | 6.8% | 0.301 | 0.293 - 0.308 |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | 1.2% | 0.300 | 0.294 - 0.306 |
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | 0.8% | 0.297 | 0.291 - 0.304 |
| Ty France | San Diego Padres | 0.6% | 0.291 | 0.283 - 0.300 |
| Jake McCarthy | Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.297 | 0.297 - 0.297 |
| Freddie Freeman | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.0% | 0.295 | 0.288 - 0.301 |
| Michael Harris II | Atlanta Braves | 0.0% | 0.287 | 0.282 - 0.294 |
| Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.0% | 0.287 | 0.280 - 0.295 |

## Home runs

Lead or share the league home-run lead.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | 85.2% | 44 | 42 - 46 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | 18.0% | 41 | 40 - 43 |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | 15.0% | 41 | 39 - 43 |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | 0.8% | 38 | 37 - 40 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | 35 | 33 - 36 |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 33 | 32 - 36 |
| Miguel Vargas | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 33 | 31 - 35 |
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 33 | 32 - 35 |
| Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | 29 | 27 - 30 |
| Byron Buxton | Minnesota Twins | 0.0% | 28 | 26 - 30 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | 98.0% | 48 | 46 - 51 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | 4.0% | 44 | 42 - 46 |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | 0.4% | 41 | 39 - 44 |
| Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | 0.0% | 41 | 39 - 43 |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | 0.0% | 39 | 38 - 41 |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 33 | 31 - 35 |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 32 | 30 - 34 |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 32 | 30 - 34 |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 32 | 31 - 35 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.0% | 32 | 31 - 34 |

## Runs batted in

Lead or share the league RBI lead.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | 61.2% | 106 | 103 - 110 |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | 24.0% | 103 | 99 - 108 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | 22.8% | 104 | 100 - 108 |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | 2.6% | 98 | 95 - 102 |
| Dillon Dingler | Detroit Tigers | 1.2% | 95 | 91 - 100 |
| Jo Adell | Cleveland Guardians | 1.0% | 97 | 93 - 102 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.2% | 93 | 90 - 97 |
| Jonathan Aranda | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 94 | 91 - 98 |
| Colson Montgomery | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 91 | 87 - 96 |
| Isaac Paredes | Houston Astros | 0.0% | 91 | 88 - 95 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | 83.6% | 116 | 113 - 120 |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | 22.0% | 113 | 109 - 117 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | 1.0% | 106 | 103 - 111 |
| Jordan Walker | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.6% | 105 | 102 - 109 |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | 0.4% | 103 | 100 - 108 |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 102 | 99 - 107 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 102 | 98 - 106 |
| Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.0% | 98 | 95 - 102 |
| Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 92 | 88 - 97 |
| Daylen Lile | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 92 | 89 - 97 |

## Pitching strikeouts

Lead or share the league pitching strikeout lead.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays | 85.4% | 252 | 248 - 257 |
| Gavin Williams | Cleveland Guardians | 19.6% | 248 | 244 - 252 |
| Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees | 0.0% | 231 | 227 - 235 |
| Reid Detmers | Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | 212 | 208 - 216 |
| Logan Gilbert | Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 208 | 204 - 213 |
| Jacob deGrom | Texas Rangers | 0.0% | 207 | 202 - 211 |
| Taj Bradley | Minnesota Twins | 0.0% | 203 | 198 - 206 |
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians | 0.0% | 190 | 186 - 194 |
| MacKenzie Gore | Texas Rangers | 0.0% | 187 | 183 - 192 |
| Sean Burke | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 183 | 180 - 187 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers | 100.0% | 259 | 255 - 264 |
| Jesús Luzardo | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 234 | 230 - 239 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 229 | 225 - 233 |
| Cade Cavalli | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 205 | 201 - 209 |
| Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves | 0.0% | 204 | 200 - 208 |
| Paul Skenes | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 202 | 198 - 208 |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets | 0.0% | 196 | 192 - 200 |
| Zack Wheeler | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 192 | 186 - 198 |
| Chase Burns | Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 191 | 187 - 195 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 184 | 180 - 188 |

## Stolen bases

Lead or share the league stolen-base lead. Steals are simulated.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.8% | 44 | 42 - 47 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | 40.4% | 43 | 42 - 46 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | New York Yankees | 14.8% | 42 | 40 - 44 |
| José Ramírez | Cleveland Guardians | 0.0% | 35 | 33 - 37 |
| José Caballero | New York Yankees | 0.0% | 32 | 32 - 32 |
| Josh Naylor | Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 29 | 28 - 31 |
| Randy Arozarena | Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 24 | 23 - 26 |
| Henry Bolte | Athletics | 0.0% | 22 | 20 - 23 |
| Julio Rodríguez | Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 22 | 21 - 24 |
| Andrés Giménez | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | 21 | 20 - 23 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Nasim Nuñez | Washington Nationals | 100.0% | 46 | 46 - 46 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | 39 | 37 - 41 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | 0.0% | 37 | 35 - 39 |
| Esteury Ruiz | Miami Marlins | 0.0% | 32 | 31 - 34 |
| Otto Lopez | Miami Marlins | 0.0% | 31 | 30 - 33 |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 29 | 28 - 31 |
| Jake McCarthy | Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 29 | 29 - 29 |
| Oneil Cruz | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 29 | 27 - 31 |
| David Hamilton | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.0% | 28 | 28 - 28 |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 28 | 26 - 30 |

## Batting Triple Crown

Lead or share AVG, HR and RBI in the same simulated season.

### AL

| Player | Team | Triple Crown | AVG lead/share | HR lead/share | RBI lead/share |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | 8.0% | 56.8% | 18.0% | 22.8% |
| Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.2% | 24.0% |
| Pete Alonso | Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 61.2% |
| Chandler Simpson | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 39.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 2.6% |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |

### NL

| Player | Team | Triple Crown | AVG lead/share | HR lead/share | RBI lead/share |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98.0% | 0.0% |
| Alec Burleson | St. Louis Cardinals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 83.6% |
| Luis Arraez | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 78.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 22.0% |
| Nick Gonzales | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |

## Rookie of the Year

Probability of leading BBMI rookie value among MLB's rookie pool. This is a performance model, not a voting forecast.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians | 100.0% | 36.2 | 31.9 - 39.7 |
| Payton Tolle | Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | 21.9 | 17.5 - 24.9 |
| Chase DeLauter | Cleveland Guardians | 0.0% | 19.8 | 15.7 - 24.2 |
| Walbert Ureña | Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | 18.8 | 13.5 - 22.2 |
| Kevin McGonigle | Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | 18.7 | 14.6 - 23.7 |
| Spencer Miles | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | 17.6 | 15.1 - 19.3 |
| Tristan Peters | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 15.8 | 11.8 - 20.1 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 15.1 | 11.1 - 20.0 |
| Munetaka Murakami | Chicago White Sox | 0.0% | 12.7 | 8.0 - 17.9 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Houston Astros | 0.0% | 11.8 | 7.1 - 14.5 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| TJ Rumfield | Colorado Rockies | 90.4% | 28.2 | 23.8 - 32.7 |
| Logan Henderson | Milwaukee Brewers | 8.8% | 23.2 | 18.2 - 26.7 |
| Bryce Eldridge | San Francisco Giants | 0.8% | 17.1 | 13.1 - 21.5 |
| Didier Fuentes | Atlanta Braves | 0.0% | 18.0 | 14.2 - 20.5 |
| Andrew Alvarez | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 14.6 | 8.0 - 19.6 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 13.7 | 10.9 - 15.9 |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 13.5 | 9.2 - 18.7 |
| Sal Stewart | Cincinnati Reds | 0.0% | 13.2 | 8.8 - 18.2 |
| Nolan McLean | New York Mets | 0.0% | 13.2 | 9.0 - 16.8 |
| Connelly Early | Washington Nationals | 0.0% | 11.4 | 11.4 - 11.4 |

## Reliever of the Year

Probability of leading BBMI relief value. Pool: zero season-to-date starts and at least 30 projected innings. This is a performance model, not a voting forecast.

### AL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Brent Headrick | New York Yankees | 76.0% | 22.4 | 18.9 - 24.7 |
| Louis Varland | Toronto Blue Jays | 11.2% | 19.4 | 16.0 - 21.4 |
| Josh Hader | Houston Astros | 7.4% | 19.0 | 16.0 - 21.2 |
| Bryan Baker | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.6% | 18.6 | 15.1 - 21.1 |
| Cade Smith | Cleveland Guardians | 0.4% | 15.7 | 12.7 - 17.7 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | 15.4 | 12.0 - 17.2 |
| Tyler Rogers | Toronto Blue Jays | 0.0% | 15.2 | 12.2 - 16.7 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | 14.4 | 11.7 - 16.0 |
| Tyler Wells | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 13.5 | 13.5 - 13.5 |
| Kevin Kelly | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.0% | 13.3 | 9.5 - 16.0 |

### NL

| Player | Team | Probability | Median | 10th-90th percentile |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Mason Miller | San Diego Padres | 98.8% | 23.3 | 20.5 - 25.3 |
| Yuki Matsui | San Diego Padres | 0.8% | 16.1 | 12.8 - 18.8 |
| Juan Morillo | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.4% | 14.4 | 11.3 - 16.6 |
| Abner Uribe | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.0% | 16.1 | 13.2 - 18.1 |
| Jhoan Duran | Philadelphia Phillies | 0.0% | 15.7 | 12.7 - 17.8 |
| Robert Suarez | Atlanta Braves | 0.0% | 14.2 | 14.2 - 14.2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 13.7 | 10.9 - 15.9 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 13.4 | 10.4 - 15.5 |
| Luke Weaver | Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 12.6 | 9.8 - 14.9 |
| Trevor Megill | Milwaukee Brewers | 0.0% | 12.4 | 9.6 - 14.4 |

## BBMI All-MLB first team

| Position | Player | Team | Median runs | Selection probability |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| C | Gabriel Moreno | Arizona Diamondbacks | 28.8 | 97.2% |
| 1B | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | 33.4 | 62.0% |
| 2B | Brice Turang | Milwaukee Brewers | 31.8 | 87.2% |
| 3B | Junior Caminero | Tampa Bay Rays | 29.0 | 96.2% |
| SS | Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | 39.5 | 75.8% |
| OF | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chicago Cubs | 69.5 | 100.0% |
| OF | James Wood | Washington Nationals | 35.8 | 95.0% |
| OF | Juan Soto | New York Mets | 30.1 | 51.6% |
| DH | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | 66.8 | 100.0% |
| SP | Cam Schlittler | New York Yankees | 48.0 | 100.0% |
| SP | Jacob Misiorowski | Milwaukee Brewers | 42.7 | 97.0% |
| SP | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Los Angeles Dodgers | 41.8 | 94.6% |
| SP | Chris Sale | Atlanta Braves | 38.3 | 80.0% |
| SP | Parker Messick | Cleveland Guardians | 36.2 | 58.0% |
| RP | Mason Miller | San Diego Padres | 23.3 | 89.8% |
| RP | Brent Headrick | New York Yankees | 22.4 | 77.0% |

## BBMI All-MLB second team

| Position | Player | Team | Median runs | Selection probability |
|---|---|---|---:|---:|
| C | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | 17.5 | 52.2% |
| 1B | Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | 28.5 | 15.2% |
| 2B | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | 25.6 | 86.6% |
| 3B | Max Muncy | Los Angeles Dodgers | 19.0 | 47.8% |
| SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | Kansas City Royals | 36.2 | 75.8% |
| OF | Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | 28.6 | 59.2% |
| OF | Jackson Chourio | Milwaukee Brewers | 25.2 | 48.2% |
| OF | Riley Greene | Detroit Tigers | 23.9 | 37.0% |
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | 35.8 | 78.2% |
| SP | Dylan Cease | Toronto Blue Jays | 35.3 | 48.2% |
| SP | Eduardo Rodriguez | Arizona Diamondbacks | 31.7 | 61.0% |
| SP | Drew Rasmussen | Tampa Bay Rays | 30.8 | 63.2% |
| SP | Nick Martinez | Tampa Bay Rays | 30.7 | 52.2% |
| SP | Cristopher Sánchez | Philadelphia Phillies | 30.6 | 56.0% |
| RP | Louis Varland | Toronto Blue Jays | 19.4 | 48.8% |
| RP | Josh Hader | Houston Astros | 19.0 | 52.4% |